As humans pump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and global temperatures rise, a major issue is how much fresh water will be available for people, forests and agriculture.
However, researchers show that popular long-term drought estimates have a major flaw - they ignore the fact that plants will be less thirsty as carbon dioxide rises.
The study shows that shifts in how plants use water could roughly halve the extent of climate change-induced droughts.
Recent studies have estimated that more than 70 per cent of Earth will experience more drought as carbon dioxide levels quadruple from pre-industrial levels over about the next 100 years.
More From This Section
However, when researchers accounted for changes in plants' water needs, this falls to 37 per cent, with bigger differences concentrated in certain regions.
"It is a significant effect," said Swann.
The reason is that when Earth's atmosphere holds more carbon dioxide, plants actually benefit from having more of the molecules they need to build their carbon-rich bodies.
When carbon dioxide is more plentiful, the stomata does not need to be open for as long, and so the plants will lose less water. They will thus draw less water from the soil through their roots.
"I had a very strong suspicion that you would get a different answer if you considered how the plants were responding," said Swann.
The study compares today's drought indices with ones that take into account changes in plant water use. It confirms that reduced precipitation will increase droughts across southern North America, southern Europe and northeastern South America.
The findings were published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.