A new report of 'Down To Earth', the science and environment fortnightly of Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), said that if predictions on El Nino come true, the agrarian crisis will acquire "mammoth" proportions and India's foodgrain production may come down by close to six per cent.
"The crisis has been brewing and growing for many years, and is now reaching its tipping point. Started by successive failures of monsoons and freak weather events, it has been aided by government policies and actions including inadequate and vague measures for compensating crop loss and reduced investments in and support to official schemes and policies and increasing farmer debts," CSE said in a statement.
The magazine reports that in 2013, five states were affected -- 0.35 million hectare of crops destroyed, causing an economic loss of Rs 500 crore.
In the current year, 15 states are already suffering-- 18.23 million ha affected, causing an economic loss till date of Rs 20,000 crore.
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"If India is under the impact of El Nino, this will be our second consecutive year of monsoon failure and fifth consecutive year of crop damage. The pattern is hauntingly similar to the most severe droughts in recent Indian history caused by two successive monsoon failures -- the Bihar famine (1965-1966) which affected 60 million people, and the 1986-87 drought which impacted 300 million," he said.
"The ways in which the government calculates damage and disburses compensation are neither simple nor adequate or fair," the green body said. Noting that entire procedure to assess crop damage is "ancient", CSE said damage reports are prepared on the basis of "guess work".