Curtailed movement of people and goods as also suspension of tolling across the country from March 25 amid coronavirus outbreak will lead to a de-growth of 12.5 per cent in traffic and 8.5 per cent in toll revenues this fiscal, according to Crisil.
To contain the spread of coronavirus, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had imposed 21 days lockdown which was later extended till May 3.
However, from April 20, the government permitted select industrial operations in non-hotspot zones with limited mobility and allowed toll collections.
According to the rating agency, the traffic growth for FY2020 was near-zero mainly because of slowing economic growth, revision in axle load norms, and the Covid-19 pandemic-driven lockdown that began in late March.
"Our calculations for this fiscal assumes 90 per cent loss of traffic in April (when tolling was suspended for 19 days), and 40 per cent loss in May as the lockdown would continue in many parts of the country," its Senior Director Sachin Gupta said.
"Traffic is unlikely to fully rebound immediately thereafter. Our base case assumption is that it will reach normal levels only by October. And if the impact prolongs, there would be an even more severe impact on traffic."
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