Foodgrain output was 129.24 MT in the kharif (summer) season of the 2013-14 crop year (July-June).
On account of 12 per cent deficit in rains so far, total area covered under kharif crops is lower by 3 per cent from last year.
Foodgrain output is estimated to fall by about 9 MT due to likely drop in rice production by 3.7 MT, coarse cereals by 4.5 MT and pulses by nearly a million tonne.
On farm growth projection for this fiscal, he said the government would try to achieve last year's level despite adverse weather situation that has resulted in drought and floods in some parts of the country.
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Singh said this is the initial and conservative kharif forecast, and production could rise in later estimates as observed in the past years.
Similarly, production of coarse cereals is projected to drop to 27.05 MT from 31.53 MT, while pulses output would be lower at 5.2 MT from 6.02 MT.
On reasons for likely fall in kharif output, Agriculture Secretary Ashish Bahuguna said: "There was delayed monsoon rains which led to late sowing. This will of course have impact on crop productivity."
Due to lower area coverage and productivity, production of most of the crops is expected to be lower than their record production levels achieved last year, an official statement said.