England set for increase in record-breaking warm years

The chances of England experiencing a record-breaking warm year, such as the one seen in 2014, are at least 13 times more likely as a result of human influences on the climate, scientists say.
The findings come from climate model simulations and detailed analyses of the Central England Temperature (CET) record - the world's longest instrumental temperature record dating back to 1659.
The study results showed that human activities have a large influence on extreme warm years in England, which the researchers claim is remarkable given England is such a small region of the world.
"When you look at average annual temperatures over larger regions of the world, such as the whole of Europe, there is a lower variability in temperatures from year to year compared with smaller areas," said lead author of the study Dr Andrew King at the University of Melbourne.

"As a result of this low variability, it is easier to spot anomalies. This is why larger regions tend to produce stronger attribution statements, so it is remarkable that we get such a clear anthropogenic influence on temperatures in a relatively small area across central England," King said.
The researchers first used climate model simulations to calculate the likelihood of very warm years when there is just natural forcings on the climate and no human influence, and then when there is both natural forcings and human influence.

The change in the likelihood of warm years due to human influences on the climate was then calculated.

The researchers then observed the CET and picked out the warmest years from the record since 1900. The warmest years were then plotted onto a graph which the researchers used to calculate the likelihood of warm years happening now and warm years happening 100 years ago.
The model-based method suggested at least a 13-fold increase due to human influences on the climate, while the observation-based approach suggested at least a 22-fold increase in the probability of very warm years in the climate of today compared with the climate of a century ago.
"Both of our approaches showed that there is a significant and substantial increase in the likelihood of very warm years occurring in central England," said King.

According to the CET, 2014 was the warmest year on record in central England.
It has been reported that during the last 60 years there has been rapid warming in the CET in line with the anthropogenic influence on the climate, with the highest average annual temperature of 10.93 degrees Celsius recorded in 2014.