The party founded by strongman President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had around 51 per cent of the vote with more than 80 percent of ballots counted, CNN-Turk television reported.
That would give it 325 seats in the 550-seat parliament, well ahead of its three main rival parties and easily enough to form a government on its own.
Opinion polls had predicted a replay of the June election when the AKP won just 40 per cent of the vote and lost its majority for the first time in 13 years.
If confirmed, the result would be a significant victory for 61-year-old Erdogan, who is hoping to expand his powers as president and continues to play a dominant role in Turkish politics.
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During the election campaign, Erdogan said only he and his loyal Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu could guarantee security, criss-crossing the country with the message: "It's me or chaos."
A report by the Brookings Institution think-tank had warned that whatever the outcome, "the challenges facing Turkey are growing by the day".
The political landscape has changed dramatically in Turkey since June, with the country even more divided on ethnic and sectarian lines.
Many Turks are fearful of a return to all-out war with outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebels after fresh violence shattered a 2013 truce in July, just a month after a pro-Kurdish party won seats in parliament for the first time and denied Erdogan's AKP a majority.
This time round, the People's Democratic Party (HDP), led by charismatic lawyer Selahattin Demirtas, appeared to lose votes, and it was uncertain if it would break through the 10-percent threshold to stay in parliament.
The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) had about 23 per cent.