Former Madagascan president Andry Rajoelina was set to return to power as partial election results on Saturday gave him a clear lead over his predecessor Marc Ravalomanana, who has alleged the vote count was fraudulent.
With 3.5 million ballots counted out of about five million cast, Rajoelina had won 55.7 per cent against 44.2 per cent for Ravalomanana in Wednesday's run-off election, according to the electoral commission.
Complete results are expected next week, before a period in which they can be legally challenged via the courts.
The two-round election was beset by allegations of fraud from both sides and the result may be contested -- raising the risk of political instability in the Indian Ocean island which has a history of coups and unrest.
"We are still waiting for the full results but I believe that the current results are irreversible. Victory is ours!" Hajo Andrianainarivelo, a senior member of Rajoelina's team, told AFP.
Fanirisoa Erinaivo, a first-round losing candidate who joined Ravalomanana's team, demanded transparency over how the vote was being counted.
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"According to the return sheets that have reached us, it is Marc Ravalomanana who is in the lead," she told AFP.
"The election commission only releases the sheets where Rajoelina is in the lead -- we suspect manipulation." Ravalomanana was due to issue a statement on Sunday, his campaign team said.
EU election observers have said they had not seen evidence of malpractice.
"The Madagascans voted in a peaceful atmosphere in a transparent and well-organised poll," mission head Cristian Preda told reporters.
"Even before the first round, the candidates talked about massive fraud. We did not see it in the field... I hope that calm will come once the results are very clear."
In the same vein, the African Union (AU) congratulated the "two candidates, the entire political class and the Madagascan people who, despite the differences... have shown restraint."