Exports to US, EU to rise over three years: Crisil

Says World Bank expects United States and EU to add $2,030 billion to world output

A rise in growth in the US and European Union (EU), coupled with a shift in Chinese policies which makes its goods costlier, will result in a jump in the country's exports to two of the biggest markets in the world, ratings agency Crisil said today.

"The share of US and EU in India's exports is likely to rise as incremental demand from these countries disproportionately benefits India's direct exports to them," it said.

The agency said that in the next three years till 2016, the World Bank expects United States and EU to add $2,030 billion to world output, which is three times more than what they have done over the past six years.

A shift in Chinese policies from exports to domestic consumption, which results in a rise in wages and incomes, and making the exports less competitive, will also help India, it said.

The agency said that from a high of around 49% in 2000, the share of the EU and the US in the country's exports has slid to 29%, as the share of Asian countries has grown from 37.8% to 49.7%.

Citing IMF estimates, it said the growth in Asian countries is expected to rise modestly, while in EU (which contracted by 0.1% for the last six years) the economic growth is expected to rise 1.8%.

The growth in US economy is also expected to accelerate to 2.8% per annum over the next three years as against the average of 0.9% post 2008, it said.

Crisil also asked for a push from the policy front for maximising the gains.

It said the government should focus on sectors that contribute significantly to the exports and specifically in those where the share of the West is high.

This should include textiles, where the US and EU have a 34% share, gems and jewellery (27%), transport equipment (19%) and machinery and instruments (30%), Crisil said.