On July 1, kerosene price was hiked by 25 paise a litre, the first increase in rate of the highly subsidised cooking and lighting fuel in five years.
"Petroleum Ministry has conveyed to oil marketing companies to raise kerosene price by 25 paise every month till April 2017," a senior official said.
The first increase has been notified by the oil companies but the rates have so far no reflected in the price of kerosene sold through public distribution system (PDS). It will happen after state governments concur.
Officials said PDS kerosene price of Rs 14.96 a litre was at Rs 13.12 discount to the fuel's actual cost of production.
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Of the discount, the government bears Rs 12 a litre and the rest of the bill is footed by upstream oil producers like ONGC.
Kerosene accounted for 41.7 per cent of the total petroleum subsidy of Rs 27,571 crore in 2015-16.
As per Icra estimates, the move to increase retail prices
of subsidised kerosene by Rs 0.25 a litre per month for 10 months (from July 2016 to April 2017) would lead to overall reduction in gross under-recovery or subsidy by Rs 760 crore in current fiscal and Rs 2,040 crore in FY18.
"As kerosene under-recoveries beyond Rs 12/litre are expected to be borne by PSU upstream companies, the upstream companies would be major beneficiaries of the reform, especially at current or higher level of crude oil prices," it said.
In a report, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said, "This is a significant pricing reform, long in waiting, and a positive surprise to the markets given the stiff opposition in the past. Post the price increase, overall FY17/FY18 subsidies will fall by Rs 1,100 crore and Rs 2,400 crore, respectively."
Icra said the increased retail prices of subsidised kerosene along with implementation of planned pilot scheme to provide subsidy directly in the bank account of users (Direct Benefit Transfer for Kerosene or DBTK) may also lead to lower diversion of kerosene for unintended purposes.
While subsidised kerosene costs Rs 14.96 a litre in Delhi, diesel is priced at Rs 54.70. Non-subsidised kerosene costs Rs 52.82 a litre, which is close to the diesel price.