The non-availability of the grid has majorly impaired the operational strength of some wind projects, given the sizable installed capacities, Ind-Ra said in a statement.
The failure to address grid issues can gradually destabilise the solar projects in the ensuing years. Grid curtailment is unpredictable, thus the ill-equipped developers have been grappling to manage their finances, barring the large ones.
The uncertain source supply (uncontrollable) and grid non-availability (controllable), despite its 'must run' status, is slowly shaking the fledgling renewable energy sector, it said.
Ind-Ra believes that inadequate forecasting systems have compelled the utilities to curtail the grid.
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In agency's view, due to the relative source certainty in solar projects, generation in solar is more predictable than in wind projects. Anecdotal evidence suggests that solar capacities in Tamil Nadu have also encountered grid issues in FY17.
The average annual grid availability for wind assets in Tamil Nadu from FY14-FY16 stood at less than 80 per cent while the average annual grid availability from FY11-FY13 was around 95 per cent.
Grid availability and increased wind supply in 1QFY17 (first quarter of this fiscal) has significantly improved the wind energy generation (94 per cent increase over 1QFY16).
Providing certainty in grid availability can make Tamil Nadu attractive for repowering of old wind turbines (1,900 mw installed till 2003).
There is large solar capacity additions envisaged to come on track in Rajasthan in 2016; however the lack of assurance on the evacuation infrastructure and the grid availability can affect the credit profile of the upcoming projects, it said.
in case a renewable energy project is unable to supply power in the event of grid curtailment.
The lack of this provision, leaves the renewable energy project stranded whenever there is curtailment and they appeal to the regulators over the non-compliance of the must run status.
In other parts of the world namely Germany and Belgium have exhibited integration of a large quantum of renewable energy. Technical and commercial challenges are emerging for the distribution utilities because of changes in the energy mix.
Efforts to address these challenges are trailing behind the envisaged pace of capacity addition. The effect of forecasting and scheduling regulations notified by Central Electricity Regulatory Commission in facilitating the utilities to balance the load and demand hasn't yet show on ground improvement, it said.
The monopoly in distribution infrastructure and lack of technology aids - to predict the source risk, tests the endurance of renewable projects and consequently renewable energy remains hostage to state utilities. There is also a need to address the costs of integration of renewable energy in the grid in an equitable manner, it added.