Fleming's logic for leaving out India from his list of Cup favourites is simple. They won the coveted trophy four years ago at home and this time it is advantage co-hosts -- Australia and New Zealand.
"I will give you top four teams. New Zealand and Australia because they play at home. South Africa are in good form, the fourth place is a bit difficult. It could be anyone -- India, Pakistan, West Indies, Sri Lanka. So I am going to go with Australia, New Zealand and South Africa and fight for the fourth spot," Fleming told PTI at a get together organised by appliance major Fisher & Paykel.
"I would just put it down to familiarity. Sri Lanka and India were the finalists last time. It was a very close contest. For the upcoming edition, there is quite a small difference among teams," said the 41-year-old, who has been the coach of Chennai Super Kings for the last six editions.
India won the 2011 edition in familiar conditions but Down Under their pacers must perform well to make things easier for them.
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Fleming feels containment strategy won't work in Australia and New Zealand, and bowlers, especially the faster ones, will have to provide regular breakthroughs.
"India's fast bowlers are not that bad but the emphasis does need to be on taking wickets, through both pace and spin. It can't be just about containment," said Fleming.