India, other large EMs less vulnerable to Fed rate hike: Fitch

Global ratings agency Fitch today said that so-called "fragile five" emerging economies including India and Brazil are showing "fewer signs of vulnerability" to US Federal Reserve's rate hike.
The large emerging markets (EMs) -- Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa -- are exhibiting fewer signs of vulnerability to a drop in capital inflows than some of their smaller counterparts, Fitch said in a report.
"This suggests these so-called 'fragile five' are not necessarily most at risk from Fed tightening, although this will ultimately be determined by a range of factors, some of which are less quantifiable," Fitch Ratings said.

The ratings agency is expecting US Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates before the end of 2015.
"There is no definitive set of indicators that capture the risks to EMs, but our heat map of 11 potential vulnerabilities related to external and public finances and the banking sector gives a snapshot of liquidity and funding exposures for selected countries from shocks to capital flows," it said.
According to Fitch, Turkey is the only country among them with three or more red indicators that signal risky or stretched levels.

"Fears about a sudden reversal of capital inflows to EMs may be overdone. Perceptions of huge inflows generated by ultra-loose US monetary policy may be misplaced. We do not expect a systemic EM crisis," Fitch said.

It further added that tightening of interest rates "will exacerbate the macroeconomic and external financing pressures on EMs".
Measurable variables captured in the heat map such as current account deficits and reserve buffers will be important, but so will less quantifiable factors such as the credibility of the macro-economic framework and policy response.
However, it also said: "Other challenges that EMs face can affect their overall vulnerability to shocks. Among the 'fragile five', for example, Indonesia is affected by lower commodity prices and Brazil by recession and rising government debt.