Researchers studying the rings of ancient trees in central Mongolia think they may have gotten at the mystery of how small bands of nomadic Mongol horsemen united to conquer much of the world within a span of decades, 800 years ago.
The rings show that exactly when the empire rose, the normally cold, arid steppes of central Asia saw their mildest, wettest weather in more than 1,000 years.
"Before fossil fuels, grass and ingenuity were the fuels for the Mongols and the cultures around them," said lead author Neil Pederson, from the Columbia University.
In the late 1100s, the Mongol tribes were racked by disarray and internal warfare, but this ended with the sudden ascendance of Genghis Khan in the early 1200s.
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In just a matter of years, he united the tribes into an efficient horse-borne military state that rapidly invaded its neighbours and expanded outward in all directions.
In 2010, Pederson and coauthor Amy Hessl from West Virginia University came across a stand of gnarled, stunted Siberian pines growing out of cracks in an old solid-rock lava flow in the Khangai Mountains in Mongolia.
They found that some trees had lived for more than 1,100 years, and likely could survive another millennium; even dead trunks stayed largely intact for another 1,000 years before rotting. One piece of wood had rings dating to about 650 BC.
The turbulent years preceding Genghis Khan's rule were stoked by intense drought from 1180 to 1190. Then, from 1211 to 1225 - exactly coinciding with the empire's meteoric rise - Mongolia saw sustained rainfall and mild warmth never seen before or since.
"The transition from extreme drought to extreme moisture right then strongly suggests that climate played a role in human events," said Hessl.
The study appears in the journal PNAS.