As some wealthier Western nations begin easing coronavirus restrictions, many developing countries, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, want to do it too, but they cannot afford the luxury of any missteps.
They lack the key tools a sturdy economy, well-equipped hospitals and large-scale testing that are needed for finding their way out of the pandemic.
Even a spirited public debate about an exit strategy, common now in Europe, seems unthinkable in countries battered by conflict, corruption or poverty.
Consider Lebanon, a tiny country teetering on the abyss of bankruptcy with a fragile health system and a restless population. A monthlong lockdown has thrown tens of thousands more people into poverty, putting pressure on the government to loosen restrictions. But medical resources are limited, prompting doctors to advocate for continuing them, even at the risk of a social explosion.
It's the same in many developing countries: Easing lockdowns could increase infections and quickly overwhelm hospitals with limited beds and breathing machines. Keeping restrictions in place risks social upheaval and more economic losses.
At the same time, inadequate testing and a lack of transparency could lead to misguided decisions, said Rabah Arezki, chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank and a senior fellow at the Middle East Initiative.
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I worry that a disorderly release of the lockdown would be doing more harm than good in the context that we are navigating without statistics and relevant data, he said.
Even wealthy nations have little room to maneuver.
Germany, Europe's largest economy, announced a slight easing of restrictions, including reopening most shops next week. But Chancellor Angela Merkel cautioned that restarting the economy too quickly could rapidly overwhelm its comparatively robust health care system.
Western nations also face a severe economic downturn, but the impact is softened by massive government rescue programs for businesses and struggling families, including $2.2 trillion in the United States. EU countries have agreed on a USD 550 billion package and are working on tax breaks and other measures to cushion the impact.
The global community is offering help to poorer nations. The International Monetary Fund said it's prepared to commit its USD 1 trillion in lending capacity to needy nations. The world's richest countries agreed to temporarily freeze poor nations' debt obligations, mainly in Africa.
Pakistan's prime minister has gone further, appealing to richer countries and international financial institutions to write off the debts of poorer countries. In a sign of growing desperation, a stampede this month at a food distribution center in