Controversy continues over who shot down the plane last summer over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people aboard.
Ukraine and the West suspect it was destroyed by a Russian surface-to-air missile fired by Russian forces or separatist rebels fighting in the area.
Mikhail Malyshevsky, an adviser to the director general of the state-controlled Almaz-Antei consortium, said at a news conference Tuesday that the analysis was based on photographs of the wreckage available to the public.
Each of the Buk subtypes has its warhead rigged with shrapnel of a specific shape. This type of missile is in the Ukrainian military arsenals, but not in the Russian, said Almaz-Antei director Yan Novikov.
While Novikov and Malyshevsky stopped short of directly blaming Ukraine for shooting down the plane, their statements hinted at that.
Malyshevsky also said that the area from where the missile was likely launched was not rebel-controlled Snizhne, as Ukraine and some Western commentators had suggested, but another place controlled by the Ukrainian government.