However, the 'Narendra Modi effect' among Tawde's Borivali constituency's Gujarati and Maharashtrian Brahmin population is likely to see him through, say observers.
Tawde, who has risen from a ABVP activist to be one of the top state leaders and is among Maharashtra BJP's core group members with Chief Ministerial ambitions, chose Borivali Assembly seat in Mumbai North parliamentary constituency because Vile Parle, where he resides, was in the quota of BJP's now former ally Shiv Sena.
If Shiv Sena-BJP alliance had continued, Tawde would not have had to slog to enter the Assembly, observers feel.
Sena leader Vinod Ghosalkar, seeking re-election from neighbouring Dahisar Assembly seat of North Mumbai, says had the alliance stayed, Tawde would have won hands down.
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"But now, he would have to work hard because Shiv Sena has given ticket to a local candidate, who is a professional (chartered accountant) and of Rajasthani origin. Borivali is a cosmopolitan area and our candidate is well known," he said.
Tawde, Leader of Opposition in state Legislative Council, also rubbished Sena's claim that he was among the BJP leaders responsible for break-up of the alliance.
"I don't want to comment on this allegation. We are focussing on appealing people to vote for the BJP just as they had done in the Lok Sabha elections," Tawde told PTI.
Shiv Sena candidate Uttam Prakash Agarwal said Borivali comprises of educated and politically aware voters and there are no predetermined notions about the area being a stronghold of any particular party.