UN experts: Islamic State aims for resurgence in Iraq, Syria

Leaders of the Islamic State extremist group are aiming to consolidate and create conditions for an "eventual resurgence in its Iraqi and Syrian heartlands," UN experts said in a new report.

The panel of experts said in a report to the Security Council this week that the process is more advanced in Iraq, where IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and most of the militant group's leadership are now based following the fall of the so-called "caliphate" that he declared in the two neighboring countries.

In Syria, where the last IS stronghold was toppled in March, the IS covert network is spreading and sleeper cells are being established at the provincial level, mirroring what has been happening in Iraq since 2017, the report said.

As for al-Qaida, the panel said the extremist group "remains resilient" though its immediate global threat is not clear, with its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, "reported to be in poor health and doubts as to how the group will manage the succession."
Looking ahead, the experts said the Islamic State group "will reinvest in the capacity to direct and facilitate complex international attacks when it has the secure space and time to do so."
The panel added, "The current abatement of such attacks, therefore, may not last long, possibly not even until the end of 2019."
The panel said up to 30,000 foreign fighters and others who traveled to the so-called "caliphate" that IS established in parts of Iraq and Syria may still be alive, "and their future prospects will be of international concern for the foreseeable future."
Outside Syria and Iraq, the experts said, IS and al-Qaida are contending "for dominance and international relevance."
They said that in Afghanistan, concerns remain about short-term and long-term threats posed by groups affiliated with both IS and al-Qaida as well as "foreign terrorist fighters who have established themselves on Afghan territory."
A sharp rise in violence and recruitment efforts in West Africa, motivated by IS or al-Qaida affiliates, has been exacerbated "by porous borders and authorities ill-equipped to confront the growing threat."
EUROPE Online propaganda encouraging low-tech, IS-inspired attacks is still available but member states report a reduced incidence of successful attacks. Nonetheless, European countries "assess that the risk remains high."