The number of Chinese students at US colleges rose from 62,000 a decade ago to 328,000 last year, and they still make up 31 per cent of all international students in the US, but growth is slowing.
Today, the Institute of International Education released federal data showing that the number of Chinese students at US colleges grew by 8 per cent last year, the smallest uptick since 2005.
"For a variety of factors, we're seeing a slowdown in Chinese enrollment," said Todd Maurer, a California analyst who advises schools and education companies on trends in Asia. "I think we're seeing the last years of double-digit growth."
Colleges seek international students partly to boost campus diversity, but they also bring a financial perk. Most schools don't offer scholarships for international students, and charge them full tuition costs. Losing foreign students could hurt college budgets, especially at a time when some public universities are struggling with long-term drops in state funding.
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"They would be severely hurt if there was a contraction," he said. "There's no Plan B. There's no other country that would send students in those numbers."
Buffalo is among many universities that have expanded global recruiting efforts in part to hedge against a possible decline from China. Along with continued work in China, Dunnett's office has turned its attention to growing countries such as Vietnam and Burma. Next year, the college plans to recruit in Iran for the first time.
Other schools are exploring whether there could be a boom from sub-Saharan Africa. Nations such as Uganda, Ethiopia and Angola have growing youth populations and middle classes, two of the factors that US colleges look for, but some say the region's governments don't offer enough funding to help students study abroad.