The US oil embargo on Venezuela that comes into effect on Sunday will deepen the South American country's economic crisis without necessarily forcing President Nicolas Maduro from power and force Caracas to turn to China and Russia for salvation.
Until now, US sanctions directly targeted the upper echelons of Maduro's regime in the hope of weakening his grip on power in favour of a transition to opposition leader Juan Guaido, who in January declared himself acting president. Then, Washington led more than 50 countries in endorsing his claim.
But these new sanctions will bite hard in a country that has suffered five years of recession marked by shortages of basic necessities such as food and medicines.
Venezuela is almost entirely reliant on oil revenue, with 96 percent of its income from crude and the US its single largest customer.
Michael Shifter from Inter-American Dialogue says "there is certainly no guarantee that the petroleum embargo will result in the end of Maduro's rule."
But he added: "It may contribute to the desperation that fuels street protests and that ultimately leads to the regime's collapse."
As interim president, he could well get a share of the blame."
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