This summer, the US plans to start using a new law that will make it more expensive for Russian banks to do business in America.
"It's a huge deal," says Mark E. Matthews, a former IRS deputy commissioner. "It would throw enormous uncertainty into the Russian banking community."
Long before the Ukraine crisis, Congress approved the law in 2010 to curb tax evasion that relies on overseas accounts.
Russia and dozens of other countries have been negotiating information-sharing agreements with the US in an effort to spare their banks from such harsh penalties.
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But after Russia annexed Crimea and was seen as stoking separatist movements in eastern Ukraine, the Treasury Department quietly suspended negotiations in March. With the July 1 deadline approaching, Russian banks are now concerned that the price of investing in the United States is about to go up.
Private investors who use Russian financial institutions to facilitate trades also face the withholding penalty. Those private investors could later apply to the IRS for refunds, but the inconvenience would be enormous.
"It's a big problem for them," said Matthews, who is now a lawyer at Caplin & Drysdale, a tax firm based in Washington. "It decreases their competitiveness and they may have capital flight elsewhere."
Last year, the US imported USD 27 billion in goods from Russia, which ranked 18th among importers to the US, according to the Census Bureau. The US exported USD 11 billion in goods to Russia.