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Crude down on oversupply after short-covering, cold-spell rally

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Reuters SEOUL
Last Updated : Jan 25 2016 | 2:49 PM IST

By Meeyoung Cho

SEOUL (Reuters) - Crude oil fell on continuing oversupply woes and profit-taking on Monday, reversing from early gains that followed a surge at the end of last week on short-covering and fuel demand triggered by freezing weather in parts of the northern hemisphere.

Brent lost 67 cents to $31.51 a barrel by 0816 GMT. U.S. crude declined 58 cents to $31.61 a barrel.

"People are taking profits after a huge increase ... The other factor would come from still having the market being in a bearish situation where the market is oversupplied," said Daniel Ang, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures.

Iraq's oil production hit a record in December, on increased output from its central and southern fields, oil ministry spokesman Asim Jihad told Reuters on Monday.

Saudi Aramco chairman Khalid al-Falih said on Monday that national oil giant Aramco is not reducing its new investment in oil and gas production capacity despite cost-cutting due to low oil prices.

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Adding to that, Indonesia's OPEC governor said that support among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for taking steps to prop up crude oil prices is slim, with only one OPEC country supporting an emergency meeting over the matter.

Earlier on Monday, Brent had rallied to touch $32.81 a barrel, and U.S. crude hit $32.74 a barrel. Oil prices soared about 10 percent on Friday, one of the biggest daily rallies ever, as bearish traders who had taken out record short positions scrambled to close them.

"A change in investor sentiment was the key factor, with speculative short positions in WTI falling from historically high levels the previous week," ANZ said in a note on Monday, referring to U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude.

Morgan Stanley said that a weaker U.S. dollar was supporting oil futures denominated in the greenback.

"A notable USD retracement, similar to last spring, remains one of few potential near term catalysts for oil prices ... Marginal changes in crude supply/demand fundamentals will likely be secondary drivers to crude oil flat price action, in our view, similar to what we've witnessed the past year."

A massive snowstorm that hit the U.S. East Coast over the weekend also stoked demand for heating oil, helping to push up crude prices early on Monday.

An analyst note released by Barclays Research said: "Absent further macro deterioration or other bearish factors, and given the extreme levels of short positioning, the market may experience a temporary turnaround."

(Reporting by Meeyoung Cho; Editing by Joseph Radford and Tom Hogue)

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First Published: Jan 25 2016 | 2:42 PM IST

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