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Malaysian ringgit sinks offshore just as economy perks up

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Reuters SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR
Last Updated : Nov 11 2016 | 6:08 PM IST

By Jongwoo Cheon and Joseph Sipalan

SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia's ringgit sank to its weakest in more than 12 years in offshore markets on Friday, as the fallout from Donald Trump's surprise U.S. election victory spoilt the day for a country reporting that its economy was finally perking up.

As the currency slumped offshore, Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Muhammad Ibrahim unveiled better than expected third quarter economic growth and current account data, and said the ringgit should not be priced out of sync with fundamentals.

"The situation now is result of speculative positioning... We don't want to be dictated by factors that have nothing to do with the country's fundamentals," Ibrahim told a news conference.

Those fundamentals include an economy that grew 4.3 percent in the third quarter, up from 4.0 percent in the second quarter and accelerating after five straight quarters of decline.

The current account surplus also widened to 6 billion ringgit ($1.4 billion) in the third quarter from 1.9 billion ringgit in the previous quarter.

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Net exports grew 5.9 percent, up sharply from a 7 percent drop in the second quarter. Private sector consumption rose 6.4 percent, up from 6.3 percent in the previous quarter.

"Although growth in Malaysia is currently relatively subdued, it is projected to pick up as policy measures gain traction and global prospects improve," Ibrahim said.

But even as he spoke, Malaysia's central bankers were busy fire-fighting as investors dumped government bonds.

Malaysia was not alone as other emerging Asian currencies and bonds lost ground too.

Investors fear capital outflows from the region once Donald Trump assumes the presidency as he is expected to adopt policies that are likely to increase U.S. interest rates faster than previously thought.

With the ringgit creaking, the central bank used its persuasive powers to keep the spot rate steady by deterring sellers onshore.

Ibrahim said the central bank had a duty to step in and tell banks to take temporary measures to calm the market.

Traders in Kuala Lumpur said the central bank told big investors that they will allow spot trades linked to transactions in bonds on a case by case basis.

One senior bank currency dealer said central bank officials had also told him to desist from making wide quotes on the ringgit, which made the market illiquid.

But, the central bank later issued a statement later saying it would provide the currency market with liquidity if needed and reiterated that there was no freeze on trading.

Offshore, the ringgit's one-month non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) lost as much as 3.7 percent from the previous close to 4.5395 per dollar, its weakest since at least September 2004, according to Thomson Reuters data.

By contrast, the ringgit spot barely moved at 4.27 per dollar. As a result, the dollar/ringgit's NDFs premium over the dollar/ringgit spot increased to 0.2695, the widest since at least April 2008, according to Reuters data.

TURBULENT TIMES

The pressure came from the government bond market, where prices fell with the 10-year yield at 3.821 percent, rising 22 basis points since Wednesday to its highest since June 28. The yields on 20-year and 30-year bonds have risen 21 basis points and 10 basis points since Wednesday.

The benchmark stock index, meantime, dropped 1 percent.

The turbulence risks destabilising a currency that has gained 0.5 percent this year, after losing more than 20 percent in 2015 due to slumping oil and gas prices, slowing demand from top trade partner China, and a financial and political scandal at state-fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB).

Foreign investors, who hold about 40 percent of outstanding government bonds, pulled 8.4 billion ringgit out of that market in September.

That followed three months of inflows, and was the largest outflow since August 2015, when the 1MDB scandal swirling around Prime Minister Najib Razak hit investor confidence.

In October, however, there were inflows of 2.39 billion ringgit into government bonds, and foreign reserves rose to $97.8 billion by the end of the month, up from $97.7 billion at the end of September.

($1 = 4.2800 ringgit)

(Additional reporting by Ewen Chew in Singapore; Writing by A. Ananthalakshmi; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)

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First Published: Nov 11 2016 | 5:52 PM IST

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