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Oil gains on Libya violence, Kurdish oil export threat

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Reuters LONDON/NEW YORK
Last Updated : Feb 16 2015 | 11:55 PM IST

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices rose to their highest in nearly two months on Monday, supported by concerns over escalating conflict with Islamic State militants in Libya and a threat to withhold exports from Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region.

Egypt bombed Islamic State targets inside Libya on Monday and Cairo renewed calls for a U.S.-led coalition to confront militants there a day after the group released a video appearing to show the beheading of 21 Egyptians.

In Iraq, a deal aimed at resolving a dispute between Baghdad and Kurdish authorities over oil export revenues looked fragile after Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani cautioned Baghdad against breaking its side of the bargain. The December pact allowed for shipping some 550,000 barrels per day of oil.

"The geopolitical risk is not something to write off," said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix in Zug, Switzerland.

Benchmark Brent futures rose 28 cents to $61.80 a barrel by 12 p.m. EST (1700 GMT) after reaching an intra-day peak of $62.57 a barrel, the highest since Dec. 22.

Prices, which have fallen from $115 in June due to an oil glut, have rebounded by nearly 40 percent from their lows a month ago, aided by a sharp fall in U.S. oil drilling.

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U.S. March crude futures gained 19 cents to $52.97 a barrel, with trading volume of just over 100,000 lots, about one-fifth the recent norm due to the U.S. Presidents Day holiday.

Libya's oil production has mostly shut down, falling to 350,000 bpd, from 1.6 million bpd before the 2011 ousting of leader Muammar Gaddafi.

Crude flows from the El Sarir oilfield remained disrupted after a pipeline was attacked and set on fire.

Iraq's southern oil exports have also fallen sharply to below 1.5 million bpd in the first two weeks of February, shipping data tracked by Reuters showed.

And now, northern exports are in question following Sunday talks with Kurdish authorities, even though both sides reaffirmed their commitment to the temporary pact in December.

"If they don't send the budget, we won't send oil," Barzani said in comments published by Rudaw online newspaper.

Further supporting the market, Kuwait's oil minister Ali al-Omair said oil prices would continue to rise this year as supply fell, with the current oil surplus already "definitely lower" than 1.8 million bpd.

"The big guessing game is whether we are now moving to a range from $60-68, or whether we're about to turn south again and head back below $60 or possibly $50," said Jeffries oil broker Christopher Bellew.

(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore, Tom Arnold and Ahmed Haggagy Kuwait, Jack Stubbs in London, Jonathan Leff in New York; Editing by Dale Hudson, Jason Neely and Marguerita Choy)

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First Published: Feb 16 2015 | 11:49 PM IST

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