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Oil heading for weekly gain on supply cut deal hopes

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Reuters LONDON
Last Updated : Jan 30 2016 | 12:22 AM IST

By Simon Falush and Dmitry Zhdannikov

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose towards $35 a barrel on Friday, a gain of some 25 percent from the 12-year lows seen earlier in January, on prospects that a deal between major exporters to cut production could help reduce one of the worst oil gluts in history.

Brent futures have jumped by around a quarter since hitting an intra-day low of $27.10 a barrel on Jan. 20. It hit a high on Thursday of $35.84.

Brent was up 88 cents at $34.77 a barrel by 1433 GMT on Friday, after gaining 79 cents, or 2.4 percent, on Thursday.

U.S. crude was up 92 cents at $34.15 a barrel, having settled up 92 cents, or 2.9 percent, at $33.22 on Thursday. Both contracts added to gains after weak U.S. GDP data raised expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve would go slow on future interest rate hikes.

Non-OPEC Russia said this week it could cooperate with OPEC on production curbs, something it had been refusing to do for 15 years.

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On Friday, Moscow sent confusing signals as Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said Russian output could decline as a result of lower investment, but the state would not intervene to balance the market.

That appeared to pour cold water on possible joint OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts mentioned by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak on Thursday.

But a few hours later, Russia's foreign ministry said veteran minister Sergei Lavrov, who almost never comments on oil policies, would visit the UAE and Oman to discuss oil markets.

Many analysts think there is still a chance of a deal.

"As the headlines fly it is difficult to be absolutely sure about each word used but we don't read 'no meeting scheduled yet' the same as 'no meeting scheduled'," Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix in Zug, Switzerland said.

"The 'yet' is not necessarily a 'nyet' and we can therefore continue to speculate about a possible meeting."

"While we view this outcome as unlikely, a 5 percent production cut by just Saudi Arabia and Russia would be sufficient to bring the market close to balance," Jefferies said in a research note on Friday, referring to Russia's comment.

Figures from Iran underlined the fact that there is no end in sight to the glut in the market unless there is a cut in production by major exporters.

Iran's oil exports are set to rise more than a fifth in January and February from last year's daily average, data from a source with knowledge of its loading schedules shows, revealing how Tehran is ramping up sales after the lifting of sanctions.

"If OPEC proposes to Russia production limits that do not undermine Russia's long-term objectives, and key Russian producers back the deal, Russia may indeed agree to production limits," said analysts from U.S. based ESAI Energy.

(Additional reporting by Meeyoung Cho in Seoul and Henning Gloystein in Singapore; editing by Jason Neely and David Evans)

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First Published: Jan 30 2016 | 12:10 AM IST

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