Distilleries are trying to convince the government that surplus alcohol could be utilised as a blending agent or an oxygenator in gasoline and thus could serve as a viable replacement for petrol and diesel.
A feasibility study of the proposal from the point of view availability and the amount of surplus alcohol, if any,needs to be undertaken in a state like Uttar Pradesh which is the highest consumer of high speed diesel oil (HSDO).
Experiment conducted by the Indian Institute of Petroleum, Deharadun, reveals a minimum requirement of 10 per cent of Ethanol (Ethyl Alcohol) blending for petrol and 15 per cent for diesel in order to be used as a fuel in road transportation sector.
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A historical compounded growth rate of 2.15 per cent for petrol and 8.60 per cent for diesel in Uttar Pradesh projects total alcohol requirements on cumulative basis for part replacement of fuel in transport sector ranges from 5582.87 lakh litres in 1995-96 to 76,511.11 lakh litres in the year 2000.
The total ethanol requirement for oxygenators in the state at a minimum concentration of 10 per cent v/v blending of ethanol, is between 5304 lakh litres (1995-96) to 7269 lakh litres( 2000). However such huge quantum of alcohol in not available with the state
Realistic projections about molasses production in the state range from 225 lakh quintals in 1995-96 to 242.74 lakh quintals by 2000. Only about 85 per cent of the total molasses production is distilled while the remaining is utilised by cattlefeed manufacturers and other direct molasses users.
On this basis it can be projected that the likely alcohol production in the state would be about 4,399 lakh litres in 1995-96 and 4,746 lakh litres by 2000
From the consumption point of view, the historical annual compounded growth rate in alcohol consumption by the chemical sector has been 12 per cent while that of potable sector has been around 8.15 per cent. The state has also granted alcohol assurances for new projects to the tune of 1630.99 lakh litres and it is expected that at least 40 per cent of these assurances will mature by 1997-98, while the rest shall mature in subsequent years by 2000
The table shows that cumulative demand for alcohol to be used in the traditional sectors alone far outstrips its available stocks leave apart the minimum alcohol requirement for any fuel programme. The meagre surplus in the first two years of projection is but an insignificant part of the total alcohol requirement as fuel in the corresponding years. From the third year onwards there is deficit as the alcohol available will be far less than its requirement for the traditional use of industrial chemicals and potable liquor.
Taking in to consideration the minimum requirement of alcohol to sustain a meaningful fuel programme in the state, the overall molasses requirement in the state would have to be between 377 lakh quintals in 1995-96 and 623 lakh quintals in the year 2000r.
Thus even the molasses rich state of Utter Pradesh does not have the required level of alcohol to sustain even the its own demand for alcohol either for fuel blending or as an oxygenate.
The technical evaluation, the energy analysis and availability of surplus refining capacity further suggests that any fuel alcohol programmes an exercise in futility.
The study suggests that the best viable alternative for the state in the event of having surplus alcohol is to maintain at least 20 per cent of the state's total traditional requirement as a buffer stock and remaining surplus, if any, could be exported in foreign markets rather than using it for fuel blend or oxygenate.
The benefit from exporting alcohol vis-