Rao's lawyers got a stay on the execution of the warrant from Justice S K Mahajan of the Delhi High Court within a couple of hours but, politically, that only had a negative impact on Rao's plummeting public image. Some of Rao's supporters have said he would not quit as CPP leader even if he were remanded to custody, but that seemed more and more like false bravado yesterday.
Congress President Sitaram Kesri, who could emerge as Rao's successor in the other major party post too, acknowledged to reporters that the warrant against Rao had adversely affected the image of the party, although he added that the party would stand by Rao. Some of even Rao's staunch supporters in the Congress believe that he has miscalculated politically in accepting the advice of lawyers and aides like Devendranath Dwivedi to repeatedly try to avoid appearing in court. They said he may have gained more politically if he had simply gone to court the first time he was summoned, as BJP president L K Advani had done.
Rao will now seek bail from the higher courts early next week. The warrant is returnable on October 14. Special judge Prem Kumar issued it, after a number of postponements, at 5.30 yesterday afternoon, when it would normally have been too late for Rao to seek bail from a higher court until Monday.
A senior minister said there would be no threat to the government, despite the possibility of a different leader of the CPP wanting to take over as the prime minister. He also discounted the importance of Congress president Sitaram Kesri's assertions in UP, indicating that the Congress would withdraw its support to the UF if the BJP won in UP.
Gowda and senior ministers such as Indrajit Gupta and Ram Vilas Paswan were out of town, as was JD working president Sharad Yadav and the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, AB Vajpayee. The CBI - senior officers of which went into a meeting with director Joginder Singh soon after the warrant was issued - and some ministers who were in town last evening had been uncertain about what would happen next, until the court stayed the warrant.
The government had been eager about a week earlier to ensure that Rao did not have to go to jail - and consequently resign as CPP leader. The calculation was that a different CPP leader would be more likely to undermine the Gowda government's stability.
After the criticism of ministers' efforts to shield Rao and Gowda's meetings with former Prime Minister VP Singh and other political allies, the government has seemed less willing to go out on a limb to protect Rao. The CBI asked for Rao's arrest yesterday. It had not opposed Rao's bail plea during the Lakhubhai Pathak case on Monday.
Gowda has been under pressure on an increasing number of issues, including the statement of a CBI officer to the Patna High Court yesterday that his seniors were interfering in his investigation into the animal husbandry scam.