The shift of some upper caste and Muslim votes to the Congress in last week's Assembly elections was a good sign for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), said party chief Kanshi Ram. He is particularly happy with the Agra East Assembly by-election results in Uttar Pradesh, where the Samajwadi Party candidate lost his deposit.
Although the BSP has come in third behind the Congress, it has retained most of its Dalit votes. Ram explained that the BSP was never a strong contender in this urban, Bania-dominated constituency, but would benefit in the state if the Congress replaced the Samajwadi Party as the third pole of the state's politics.
UP politics chiefly constitutes the BJP, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP. Both the Samajwadi Party and the BSP often compete for the support of the same social groups. If the Congress now replaced the Samajwadi as the third pole, it would eat into the BJP's upper caste votes, leaving the more backward castes to be monopolised by the BSP, Ram said.
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His party is confident that the Dalits' support for the BSP will not waver, at least in Uttar Pradesh. On his party's performance in the Assembly polls, Ram said it never had a strong presence in Rajasthan and Delhi, although acknowledged that he worked hard to establish it.
In Madhya Pradesh the party has retained just as many seats as it had in the last House. However, Ram pointed out that the party had contested only 160 of the 320 seats this time. The focus this time was on defeating the BJP, which had been achieved, he said.
Ram, however, ruled out an alliance with the Congress in Uttar Pradesh whenever elections are held there next. He would prefer that the Congress ate into the BJP's and Samajwadi Party's votes, he said.
Trends indicate that the Congress has gained some Muslim and upper caste votes since February. It even appears to have won a few Dalit votes.
The Congress now is girding to retrieve some of its strength in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. "How long can we go on using crutches? We have to build our own strength," said All-India Congress Committee general secretary Tariq Anwar, who hails from Bihar and had been in favour of an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
The RJD, led by Laloo Prasad Yadav, appears to have retained its strength in Bihar, winning by-elections in north and central Bihar, and one in the tribal-dominated Jharkhand area. Anwar said this was a case of "sympathy vote", because the RJD candidate was the widow of a slain leader.
Anwar pointed out that the Congress' vote share in these by-elections had improved since February, indicating the shift of some Muslims from the RJD and some of the upper castes from the BJP-Samata Party alliance. High prices and disillusionment with the Centre's performance went against the alliance in Bihar too, he said.