Can Federer do it at the US Open?

Federer's advantage is his versatility. He can produce an ace when in trouble. But he has to watch out for unforced errors, which often are the cause of his undoing

The US Open, the last of the Grand Slam events in tennis in 2014, commences on August 25 and concludes on September 7. It is played on an acrylic hard court (DecoTurf), while the Australian Open is played on a synthetic hard court. Hard courts can vary in speed, although they are faster than clay, but not as fast as grass courts. Tennis balls slow down slightly less upon impact with DecoTurf and bounce slightly lower. The surface is, therefore a favourite of serve-and-volley players. Hard courts do not allow the time needed for the huge topspin swings that do well on clay; hence few French Open champions win at the US Open.

The transition from the grass courts of Wimbledon to the hard courts of Flushing Meadows is less difficult than that from the slow clay courts of the French Open to Wimbledon. Fifteen players have who won Wimbledon and the US Open back to back over 18 years compared with six players in nine years in the case of the other. The last to achieve the Wimbledon-US Open combo was Roger Federer in 2005. Over the years, the Open changed the surface from grass to clay and then to hard court. Connors is the only one to win the US Open on three different surfaces: grass in 1974 (against Ken Rosewall), clay in 1976 (over Bjorn Borg) and hard court in 1978 (over Borg again). Chris Evert won on two surfaces.

Serve -and-volley players are most at home at the US Open. The surface helps aggressive tactics unlike the defensive game played on slower courts. Groundstroke and return specialists benefit from the predictable bounce of a hard court and its medium speed, which allows them time to prepare an aggressive swing, but not so much time that the opponent will always run the shot down. Powerful baseliners to have won include Steffi Graf and Ivan Lendl. Rafael Nadal has won nine titles in Paris, but only two at New York, possible because DecoTurf doesn’t allow you the time required for a huge topspin swing. Groundstroke and return specialists like Novak Djokovic benefit from the predictable bounce and speed, allowing them the time to prepare an aggressive swing, but not so much time that the opponent will always run the shot down.

Djokovic and Andy Murray rely heavily on their great defensive abilities, which have helped to set them apart from the rest of the pack. Defence, however, is more important on slow courts. Djokovic is great in his returns like Andre Agassi in the past and that has won him many matches. Tomas Berdych needs to polish his ground strokes to win.

There is no doubt about the resurgence of Federer in recent months. Between Wimbledon and the US Open, there have been ATP championships on hard courts at Washington DC, Toronto, Cincinnati and Winston-Salem. Of them, the Cincinnati event, played on DecoTurf with the participation of top players, is a good pointer to the possible champion in Flushing Meadows. At Cincinnati, Federer and David Ferrer met in the final and the former won his sixth title there and 80th overall. Nadal, the defending champion, has withdrawn from the US Open. The final is likely to be between the two top players — Djokovic and Federer. Buoyed by his Cincinnati victory, Federer has the upper hand. However, a Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or a Ferrer or a Berdych or a Milos Raonic could upset the apple cart.

Serena Williams is in top form heading into the US Open in terms of her game.  She convincingly won her first Cincinnati title against Ana Ivanovic. Williams’ greatest strength is her remarkably fast and accurate serve on any court, which is easily the best in the history of women’s tennis. Federer’s corresponding advantage is his versatility. He can produce an ace when in trouble. But he has to watch out for unforced errors which often are the cause of his undoing. Whereas Nadal often tries to wear down his rivals with his punishing strength and stamina, Federer aims to disrupt the rhythm of fitter opponents by mixing up his shots. He has become better than ever at keeping his adversary guessing, even though he is much more likely to lose energy and focus over the course of a long match than he once did. The aggressive style of play of Federer and Williams mark them out as potential winners at the US Open.