Just one of 20 psephologists and professional pollsters questioned by Reuters earlier this week thinks the Tory party, hit by allegations of sleaze and divided over Europe, will win a fifth term in office when its mandate expires by next May.
The electorate believes two things. That the Conservatives are neither competent nor trustworthy and that the Labour party no longer frightens them, said Ivor Crewe, vice-chancellor at Essex University. Crewe sees a Labour majority of 61 seats in the 659-seat parliament, or a 42 per cent share of the vote.
The winning party must capture around 330 seats for a clear victory.
The averages of 20 estimates in the survey point to Labour seizing 41.6 per cent of the vote, leaving the Conservatives with 36.7 per cent, their smallest share in any election since 1979. The overall prediction for the opposition Liberal Democrats is 16.6 per cent.
In a new Lower House of Parliament expanded by nine seats because of constituency boundary changes, these overall predictions would translate into 346 seats for Labour and 261 for the Conservatives.