In a major upward revision of farm production estimates, the Union agriculture ministry yesterday put foodgrains output in the current agricultural year (July 1, 1996-June 30, 1997) at an all-time high of 198.17 million tonnes.
This is over 13 million tonnes, or 7 per cent, higher than last years reduced harvest of 185 million tonnes, and 6.67 million tonnes (3.48 per cent) more than the previous best of 191.5 million tonnes in 1994-95.
The earlier estimate of 1996-97 foodgrains output, released in April, had put the figure at 192.12 million tonnes.
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The bulk of the increase in production is accounted for by wheat, which is now estimated at a record 68.71 million tonnes. This is 6.09 million tonnes higher than last year by far the biggest jump in output in a single year. A similar increase of 5.93 million tonnes was registered in 1994-95 when wheat production rose from 59.84 million tonnes in 1993-94 to 65.77 million tonnes.
Releasing the latest official estimates at a joint press conference, agriculture minister Chaturanan Mishra and food minister Raghubans Prasad Singh said the revised figures were based on estimates received from the states and had been discussed thoroughly with the officials of the Central and state agriculture departments.
We do not want a repeat of last year when the foodgrains production estimates had to be scaled down substantially to 185 million tonnes. This time, we have been over-cautious before releasing the figures, stated Mishra.
Both ministers maintained that the countrys food situation would be relatively much better this year. Besides higher domestic output, about 1.7 million tonnes of imported wheat is also available. An additional import of one million tonnes of wheat has already been contracted for. Further imports would be considered only after watching how the traders behave, Mishra said.
Mishra said sugar production is likely to fall in the current year to an estimated 13.2 million tonnes, but assured the audience that there would be no shortage in the country thanks to a substantial carry-over stock from the previous year.
While this year, the situation of wheat, rice as well as sugar would be comfortable, nothing could be said about next year, Mishra said. If the monsoon turned out to be bad under the influence of El Nino, there could be problems in meeting the demand, he added.
He said his ministry was not leaving anything to chance. An elaborate scheme has already been chalked out to augment irrigation potential through tubewells in areas where underground water is readily available. I have written to the Planning Commission, the finance ministry and the Prime Minister regarding this project, he said.
The agriculture minister estimated the cost of the project at around Rs 400 crore-Rs 500 crore, but said this amount had to be spent for the sake of a secure food position in food.
The production of other crops, including rice, coarse cereals and pulses has also risen appreciably in 1996-97.
The revised estimates put rice production in 1996-97 at 80.54 million tonnes, against 79.62 million tonnes last year and 81.81 million tonnes in 1994-95. The kharif rice harvest this year was about a million tonnes lower than the previous record of 72.6 million tonnes in 1994-95.
The output of coarse grains, including jowar, bajra, maize, ragi, small millets and barley, is estimated at 34.07 million tonnes, substantially higher than last years level of 29.61 million tonnes, though still below the peak of 36.59 million tonnes achieved in 1992-93.
On the pulses front, too, the country has done well in 1996-97, achieving a record output of 14.85 million tonnes. The previous best was 14.26 million tonnes in 1991.