Gowdas Calculations Go Awry

Front partners may use Thackeray statement to oust Gowda

With the calculations of both Congress president Sitaram Kesri and Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda going awry, the possibility of a climbdown by both was negotiated at various levels yesterday. The possibility of the United Front changing its leader even before Fridays confidence vote was discussed, but only in backroom conversations.

The leaders could find a handle to oust Gowda in the reported statement of Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray that Gowda asked him and BJP president L K Advani to get their parties to abstain on Friday, so that his government could survive. A number of Front partners are unwilling for any sort of truck with parties which they dub communal, particularly the Sena and the BJP.

Most of the Fronts leaders are expected to return to the capital today and efforts to hammer out a compromise before Fridays vote are likely to be stepped up, with the Fronts standing committee likely to meet today.

Some Front leaders pointed out that President S D Sharma has told some of his visitors that the United Front and the Congress should hammer out a solution among themselves. He was said to have indicated that he could invite the BJP to form a new government if Gowdas government were to fall.

Yesterday, discussions centred on the possibility of Kesri chairing a Congress-UF coordinating committee, with or without his partys participation in the government. Another suggestion was that Gowda could resign after the confidence vote, to give way to another Front leader as Prime Minister, Kesri remaining the chairman of a coordinating committee.

Kesri remained adamant about his candidature but, while his opponents in his party committed themselves to him in public, they manoeuvred to corner him by egging MPs to put the avoidance of fresh elections on top of the partys agenda. There was also talk of former Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao and the partys Lok Sabha floor leader Sharad Pawar agreeing on a patch-up with the Front. Former Prime Minister V P Singh has urged Rao to play a more active role in diffusing the situation.

Some leaders of the anti-Kesri camp in the Congress hoped that the MPs pressure might force Kesri to climb down and if Gowda is made to visit him and express regret for not having consulted him in the past, the situation could improve. Home Minister Indrajit Gupta has already expressed regrets at the Front not having consulted Kesri.

The United Front got a shot in the arm from the Akali Dal, which promised to support his government in the confidence vote on Friday.

Gowda would survive if the BJP were to abstain. Indeed, the BJP kept its options open, by issuing a whip asking its MPs to vote whichever way their leader, AB Vajpayee, told them to in the house on Friday.

The Congress of course used that statement to attack Gowdas secular credentials. The party evidently hopes to create a rift within the UF over Gowda seeking BJP help. Left and some other front leaders are totally against any sort of truck with the BJP whatsoever.

Many Congress leaders acknowledged that Kesris bid seemed like a long shot now but that they were determined that Gowda should go. Some Congress leaders such as A K Antony spoke of a compromise, perhaps hinting at the possibility of someone like TMC chief G K Moopanar taking over as Prime Minister in a Congress-UF coalition.

Some Front leaders too spoke in private of the possibility of replacing Gowda to avoid giving any advantage to the BJP. Many leaders of Gowdas own Janata Dal seemed most amenable to replacing him. Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav too told other front leaders of the need to avoid fresh elections.