India's population gap over China to widen further, shows data

India is set to surpass China by 3 million people in 2023

India’s population gap over China is set to widen for decades yet, and there will be two Indians for every Chinese person alive by the end of the century.
 

India is expected to cross China and become the world’s most populous country in April this year, according to United Nations Population Division data.  The two countries have accounted for around 36 per cent of the world’s population since the 1950s. In 2022, according to medium variant projections by the UN, it was 35.6 per cent and is estimated to be 35.5 per cent in 2023.  By 2100, India and China will account for 22.2 per cent of the world’s population.
 

While China has been more populated than India since the 1950s, an analysis of the UN data shows that India will surpass China in 2023 by 3 million people and the gap will only widen with time.
 

“Roughly one-in-five people globally who are under the age of 25 live in India,” according to an analysis by Pew Research Center.

Those below 25 years of age accounted for 57.13 per cent share in India’s total population in 1950. By July 2023, it will be 42.7 per cent. The share of those in the age group of 25-64 will be 50.2 per cent by July 2023. However, the share is projected to change by 2100. Share of those below 25 years of age will further decline to 23.9 per cent. On the other hand, the share of those in the age group of 25-64 will rise to 46.3 per cent.

India’s total fertility rate, or number of children born per woman, was 5.73 compared to a global rate of 4.86 in 1950. In 2022, India’s rate was estimated to be 2.01 while the global rate is 2.31. China’s declined from 5.81 in 1950 to 1.18 in 2022.  
 

Data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) shows that the fertility rate in urban India has fallen from 2.06 in 2005-06 to 1.63 in 2019-21. The decline in rural India was from 2.98 to 2.14 in the same period.

In 2022, more than 487,000 people migrated from India. As per the UN projections, the country is likely to face net negative migration till 2100.

Pew Research Center highlights, “India’s net migration has not always been negative. As recently as 2016, India gained an estimated 68,000 people due to migration (likely to be a result of an increase in asylum-seeking Rohingya fleeing Myanmar). India also recorded increases in net migration on several occasions in the second half of the 20th century”.