Estimates vary from 200 to 2,000 Kashmiris but many of them are recycled militants, as Eight Mountain Division commander Major General J B S Yadava describes those who, having surrendered and been released, rejoined one of the militant groups, either under militant pressure or because they had nothing better to do.
Yadava holds that militancy will continue for a long time but ascribes the current lull to the recent successes of the security forces rather than to a gathering storm. These three months have been terrible for the militants, they have got such a knock from the security forces.
Some intelligence officers say that Uri and Kupwara have become virtual safe passages for infiltrators. The militants are also reported to be concentrated near the Anchar lake, Ganderbal and Budgam in the valley, and the Doda, Rajouri and Poonch districts of the Jammu region. Some intelligence officers, and many village leaders in the valley, say that not only do the foreigners avoid conflict, the army too steers clear of foreign militants, particularly if they are in large bands. Where there are more than 10 militants, the army does not go, says an intelligence officer.
Also Read
The army says its strategy is to tackle militants only on the basis of specific information and not to risk killing innocent Kashmiris. Instead of creating a negative impact on the public, we say well get them next time, argues Yadava. The days of random crackdowns, in which entire localities were searched with a fine tooth comb, are over.
As a long-term strategy, both the army and the resurgent state police appear to be more concerned about dousing the remnants of the insurgency among Kashmiris than about repelling the foreign intruders. The best sign is that the local recruitment has gone down sharply, says Director-General of Police Gurbachan Jagat, adding that militants are now trying to kidnap young boys to turn them into militants and have offered up to Rs 50,000 to parents to send teenaged boys with them.
Yadava says that when some militants recently tried to forcibly take some boys from Bandipora and Malangam, a large group of women, mostly mothers, followed them up to the hills. He says the boys were released when the women threatened to follow them all the way to the border.
Village leaders and young Kashmiris confirm that hardly any Kashmiri boys now go across the border for training. I would doubt very much if more than a 100 would have gone across in the last six months, says B R Singh, principal secretary to the Chief Minister. In the villages, Kashmiris say that whatever hospitality and cooperation the militants now receive is reluctantly given, under threat except from supporters of the Jamaat-e-Islami.
Of the few remaining active militants, mainly of the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Harkat-ul Ansar and the Hizb-ul Mujahideen, Yadava holds that the core remains in downtown Srinagar. However, he adds that three out of four are in other parts of the valley perhaps half in the higher reaches. As long as Srinagar is not controlled, the valley will never be completely controlled, he says.
If the recent intelligence reports are to be believed, though, a new round of high-intensity militancy could hit the state in a few months that would make the antics of militants now hiding in downtown Srinagar seem like games at a school picnic.