The Centre is convinced that although AIADMK leader J Jayalalitha wants the DMK-led Tamil Nadu government dismissed she will not rock the coalition at the Centre to the extent that it capsizes. Acknowledging the fact that the pressure would no doubt continue, a senior member of the government said that problem was not nearly as big as the media had projected it.
He said that the public pressure to dismiss the Tamil Nadu government would make it even more difficult to do it, even if a situation that would warrant such an action were to develop there. Only a strong government could do that, even if the situation arose.
Some respected psephologists hold that the bomb blast in Coimbatore on the eve of the general elections contributed greatly to the performance of the AIADMK-BJP alliance. If fresh assembly elections are to follow now, the alliance may need a strong campaign issue, in addition to the anti-incumbency mood.
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Some BJP leaders in the government appear willing to allow a situation to build up over the next few months that would allow them to argue that the dismissal of the state government was unavoidable. They point out, however, that, after the Gujral governments embarrassing failure to impose Presidents rule in Uttar Pradesh, the Centre must be sure that its arguments convince President K R Narayanan.
In any case, the Centre intends to weather the criticism from Chennai and the pressure from Jayalalitha and her ally, Subramanian Swamy. BJP leaders know that her options are limited, that she must willy nilly remain with the current coalition.
Any alternate government in the life of the current Lok Sabha would have to be backed by the Left, which would be more averse than the BJP to allowing the misuse of Article 356, which enables the Centre to dismiss a state government. Plus, Jayalalitha cannot easily back a Congress-led arrangement after having publicly described the prospect of Congress president Sonia Gandhi leading the nation as a national disgrace.
Swamys broadsides against the Centre have been more damaging than Jayalalithas but the senior leaders of the BJP draw a distinction between the two. Each is using the other, says one of them.