The recent rains mainly in Gujarat have revived hopes of a good groundnut crop. But, other groundnut producing states like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have yet to receive satisfactory rains. These three states have a lion's share of 77 per cent in the total production of groundnut in the country.
According to a trade estimate, the groundnut production during the year `96-97, Andhra Pradesh has already surpassed Gujarat by 50,000 tonnes at 19.5 lakh tonnes as against Gujarat's 19 lakh tonnes, followed by Tamil Nadu with 14 lakh tonnes and Karnataka with 9.7 lakh tonnes.
'The recent rains in Gujarat will provide enough moisture to the groundnut crop, but now the entire crop situation in the country depends on more rains expected, mainly in Andhra Pradesh, which has now emerged as a leading groundnut producing state, followed by Tamil Nadu and Karnataka', said Navinchandra Shah, president of the Bombay Oillseeds & Oils Exchange.
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He added that if these states do not receive rains in time, the crop estimates will have to be revised. But overall, the trend in groundnut oil producing states seems firm.
Following heavy imports, the trend in other edible oils is likely to be weak. India has already imported around 9 lakh tonnes of oils by June'97 and about 6/7 lakh tonnes of vanaspati oil is expected to come in by the remaining period (Nov-Oct) taking the estimated total to about 15/16 lakh tonnes. However, sources say that, if the monsoon is delayed, the import figure could reach 20 lakh tonnes.
The recent floods and heavy rains in Gujarat and in other states may be the effects of the EL Nino. Indian meteorologists indicate that the long-awaited rainfall will soon occur in Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh allowing delayed soybean and groundnut sowing to pick up. The situation in India is still unclear, according to Oil World.