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Survey Thrifty On Projections

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Last Updated : May 29 1998 | 12:00 AM IST

The Economic Survey for 1997-98, despite having the benefit of three extra months for preparation, is patchy on data and thrifty on projections and policy prescriptions.

This has given rise to speculation that the survey was actually prepared by the previous government and was released yesterday with only cosmetic changes.

Compared to previous editions of the survey, this year's exercise does not measure up to the quality that has become the norm since the economic reforms were initiated in 1991.

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The information in the different chapters is patchy. The data at best is out of date and leaves a strong impression of thrift.

Despite coming out in the last month of the first quarter of 1998-99, it does not have the final data for previous year.

Further, it dismisses the economic impact of the nuclear tests in one paragraph in the survey.

Also, unlike in past surveys, it contains hardly any projections and is extremely tightfisted on the direction future policies would take.

For instance. it is vague on public sector reforms and fails to outline the government's policies with regard to public sector undertakings (PSUs).

It is silent on the proposed disinvestment in PSUs. All that it notes is that the recommendations of the disinvestment commission are currently under various stages of implementation in the departments concerned.

The chapter on industrial policy reforms too is very brief and skips many important issues.

The Survey is silent on the issue of industrial employment. The Economic Survey of 1996-97 contained a small sub-chapter on industrial employment, something missing in the latest survey.

This is significant in view of the recent indications of large-scale layoffs and retrenchments in the industrial sector.

Besides, the new government's commitment on generating employment as one of the priorities of overall economic development has not been reflected in this year's survey.

More suprisingly, the survey completely ducks mention of some sectors like shipping.

The exclusion of the shipping sector in the survey comes at a time when there has been a reduction in shipping tonnage in the country from 7.1 million tonnes (mt) to 6.7 mt during the last year.

The impact of the dismantling of the administered price mechanism for petroleum on the shipping industry does not find any mention at all. There is no reference to shipyards either.

Domestic yards have just completed financial restructuring, an important event in the shipping industry.

In trade, it is silent on the projections for export and imports growth in fiscal 1998-99.

This, experts note, is a clear deviation from the past.

Last year, for example, the survey projected an export growth of 8-10 per cent. "But," says a trade analyst, "the actual growth was only 2.6 per cent. Maybe that's why they are silent."

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First Published: May 29 1998 | 12:00 AM IST

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