Keeping self-interest above all, constituents of the United Front have begun working out new alignments across the political divide with an eye on assembly elections scheduled for next year in some states.
Indications are that like National Front, formed after the 1989 elections, the United Front too will shortly cease to exist.
Two new alignments are clearly on the horizon: an alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Telugu Desam of N Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh; and between the Samajwadi Party, the Loktantrik Congress, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress in Uttar Pradesh.
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Assembly election is due in Andhra Pradesh towards the end of 1999, while a mid-term election is anticipated in Uttar Pradesh after the Kalyan Singh government recommends dissolution of the House after a BJP-led government takes over at the Centre later this week. Between playing a role at the Centre and being at the helm of affairs in Andhra Pradesh, Naidu declared at Fridays meeting of the United Fronts steering committee, he prefers the latter.
Given the BJPs increased vote percentage in Andhra Pradesh, sources close to Naidu say he has no choice but to join hands with the party during the assembly elections. Without an alliance between the Telugu Desam and the BJP, the Congress is sure to return to power in the state, says a Naidu aide. The Telugu Desam has already indicated that it would not mind extending issue-based support to the BJP even if it does not openly support the party during the confidence motion expected to be tabled later this month in the newly-constituted Lok Sabha.
Assam Chief Minister Prafulla Mahanta and Naidu have been working in tandem after the results were declared since both face the prospect of their respective state governments being dismissed if the Congress occupied the larger space in a Congress-led government.
Naidus likely departure from the United Front is already being talked about within the coalition. Tamil Maanila Congress leader G K Moopanar said: If somebody wants to go away then he will. But I hope Naidu will understand the reality and take a decision carefully. I appeal to him to understand the reality, come back to the United Front and lead it in the right direction. I hope he will do it.
Meanwhile, there is considerable exasperation within the Front over the dogged efforts of CPM general secretary H S Surjeet, who has been trying to impose a pro-Congress line on the coalition ever since the results were declared. This was apparent during a meeting between him and a senior regional party leader over the weekend. Surjeet was virtually cold shouldered at the meeting, and told in clear terms that his line was not welcome.
The process of disintegration of the United Front had already begun before the elections. Apart from the fact that there was little coordination among its constituents, most of whom ended up fighting each other in various states, constituents like the Arunachal Congress, the Bharatiya Kamgar Kisan Party had already distanced themselves from the coalition.
In terms of seats won by the constituents, the United Front has virtually been reduced to a Left Front.
The Samajwadi Partys proclivities towards the Congress have been made known on several occasions. With the success of the partys alliance with the Congress and the Republican Party of India in Maharashtra, it has offered to enter into similar arrangements with the Congress in other states too. A similar alliance in Uttar Pradesh is a certainty, though here the Congress will be the junior partner.
With six MPs, the Janata Dal is reconciled to a marginal role. Efforts for a patch-up with Laloo Prasad Yadavs Rashtriya Janata Dal and re-unification have little chances of succeeding given the fact that his rivals like H D Deve Gowda, Sharad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan continue to occupy key positions in the Janata Dal. Over the weekend, Gowda mooted the proposal of non-BJP parties coming together under the leadership of former Prime Minister Chandrashekhar. But this was dismissed outright. Senior United Front leaders also anticipate that the TMC would return to the Congress fold.
At Fridays meeting of the steering committee, TMC leader P Chidambaram favoured the pro-Congress line propounded by Surjeet on the ground that if the BJP succeeded in forming the government, his party would face the wrath of AIADMKs Jayalalitha, a frontline ally of the BJP.