With the availability of the 3G spectrum, about 275 million Indian subscribers will use 3G-enabled services, and the number of 3G-enabled handsets will reach close to 395 million by 2013-end, estimates the latest report by Evalueserve, a provider of knowledge process outsourcing (KPO) services.
Although the Centre has allotted two state-owned operators — Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL) — for the roll out of 3G services in over 12 Indian cities, the technology will gather steam only when private telecom operators are also allotted 3G spectrum, says the report.
The growth in the 3G subscriber base is expected to be driven primarily by the adoption of the service by the urban (above poverty line) customer segment.
This segment is expected to be the fastest adopter of the new technology. The urban (above poverty line) segment is expected to account for about 80 per cent of the 3G consumer base by 2013. The below poverty line segment is expected to remain dormant over four to five years following the launch of 3G.
Evalueserve expects that nearly 50 per cent of the urban (above poverty line) customers will opt for 3G services by 2013. The low rural (above poverty line) penetration indicates a huge untapped potential in the rural market. With the launch of the advanced 3G services by private operators, the revenue from data services is expected to increase substantially in the near future. In addition, the demand for regional content like video clips, mobile comic strips and mobile magazines is expected to surge in the rural segment post-2012. Industry experts estimate that the percentage share of data revenues (in total revenues) is expected to reach 23 per cent by 2013.
3G-enabled handset market in India is set to grow at a tremendous pace in the next few years, estimates the report. Although 3G services have just been launched, the number of 3G handset users is already above 20 million. The number of 3G handsets is expected to reach 395 million by 2013, an increase of about 82 per cent (CAGR) from 2008. As handset manufacturers are preparing to launch 3G handsets for as low as $100 (Rs 4,850 approximately), it is expected that by 2013, 3G handsets will account for over 40 per cent of the mobile handset base in India.
With rising income per household and improving standards of application-related services in India, the total mobile subscriber base in India could cross the 850 million mark by the end of 2012 and reach nearly 1 billion by the end of 2013, said the report. During 2005-2008, India’s overall subscriber base recorded a growth of 66 per cent (CAGR). As of the end of 2008, the number of mobile service users in the country stood at 346.9 million.
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According to Evalueserve estimates, the mobile subscriber base in India is expected to rise at a CAGR of 23 per cent during 2008-2013 and will reach nearly 1 billion by end of 2013. The growth in this sector, according to the report will be primarily driven by increasing adoption of mobile services by the rural segment, which is largely untapped as of now.
The overall mobile penetration is expected to reach 78.3 per cent in 2013 from about 30 per cent in 2008. In 2013, the penetration is expected to reach 142.5 per cent, 79 per cent and 15 per cent in the urban (above poverty line), rural (above poverty line) and urban (below poverty line), respectively. However, the rural (below poverty line) segment will remain relatively dormant due to low purchasing power, says the report.