A parallel universe: Meta is hardly the only entity involved with metaverse

And the business possibilities they present are immense - even unfathomable

In its haste to rebrand itself, Facebook may have committed trademark infringement. A Chicago-based outfit called Meta Company says it is going to sue the social media giant, which now calls itself Meta. But Meta is hardly the only entity involved with the metaverse. Many companies are jumping into this space, seeking to carve out their own empires.

The word “metaverse” was coined in the 1992 novel, Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson. Snow Crash was published the year before Tim Berners-Lee invented HTML (HyperText Markup Language) and laid the foundations of the World Wide Web. Stephenson conceptualised a future controlled by multi-nationals, where everybody lives in augmented reality, which is what he termed the metaverse. It’s a great book, looping back and forth between programming and Sumerian mythology, with the main character hacking code as well as delivering pizzas.  

Although Stephenson vehemently denies having anything to do with the Meta rebranding, his definition of the metaverse has been adopted wholesale by the tech community. The metaverse will actually be multiple metaverses, or spaces where physical reality morphs seamlessly into augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR). It could be the logical successor to social media, and untold billions will be thrown into developing and marketing it.

Meta is looking at the hardware in the form of VR helmets, and developer platforms like Horizons; Microsoft is looking at software, avatars and office productivity tools; gaming platform Roblox is thinking of meta-gaming developer tools; Tinder is trying to introduce new nuances to “metasexuality”; game developer Electronic Arts is hoping to create metaverses centred on its games.

There may be millions of other businesses looking at the possible opportunities in this new space. There are endless different ways this could pan out.

Reality check #1: The technological prerequisites for running metaverses everywhere don’t really exist. Very few places have the connectivity required to maintain this environment for billions of people on the move. Setting up that infrastructure needs new hardware, and blindingly fast mobile broadband networks. This is an opportunity, and a threat.

Assuming 5G connectivity and successor technologies to 5G as given, a massive scaling up of Internet-of-Things (IoT) penetration will be needed. Everything in our physical environment, including perhaps our bodies themselves, will have to “smarten up” by embedding IoT. If we assume an IoT scale up, new devices like VR helmets, smart glasses, smart wearable gear and other more exotic personal hardware will be needed to stay connected to an always-on metaverse.

These all present business opportunities. Different companies will find different approaches. Figuring out what will become the industry standard is hard — the ones who guess right will become very rich.  

Old-timers may recall the Betamax-VHS war that occurred in the video cassette recorder era of the 1980s. VHS won that particular battle of formats but business schools are still debating why. Similar format wars have happened in search engines, operating systems, smartphones, browsers, social networks etc. The metaverse will spark off another set of battles. Eventually, some companies will carve out standards and work out interoperability and compatibility.

Reality check#2: Fine, let’s imagine there’s the infrastructure, requisite devices, IoT penetration and compatible standards to enable 24x7, seamless metaverses. What do people use this platform for? Where are the revenue models riding on this?

This is even harder to answer. If you can create an immersive environment, one so immersive that it’s hard to tell what is physically real and what is augmented, what will it be used for?

Gaming is an obvious possibility. Games require world-building and immersive environments. Obviously the meta-gamerverse could deliver enhan­ced versions and enable entirely new games that are hard to imagine until such an environment exists.

Enhanced entertainment options could also do well: Would you like a personalised performance of Othello by 3D avatars, for example? This can also profitably edge over into porn — I’m sure sex-related industries will be early adopters.  

Then again, there could be simulations of real environments. For example, if a traveller wants to find a B&B, she might take a meta-tour of prospective rooms. The metaverse could deliver a touchy-feely experience to check out the lighting, furniture and toilets. Engineering design and STEM research could also find many applications.

There may be simulations of physical activities. Can you teach somebody to swim in the metaverse? Nice challenge but maybe not. But you can help them improve tennis or golf technique, or help them plan their route to climbing the North Face of Everest. Maybe you can create zero-gravity metaverses to sell space tourism.

While the possibilities are endless, it’s hard to figure out what could work and what will not. History does tell us some things. One is that market leaders in one technological phase seldom remain market leaders in the next, though they may reinvent themselves and regain leadership. Think IBM, Google, Microsoft, Apple and now, Meta.

Another lesson is, once a technology exists, people will find hitherto unsuspected ways of using it. Think about mobile phones. Nobody realised texting would be so popular. There will be similar unsuspected applications as the metaverse evolves.