Gartner has revealed its top predictions for Information Technology (IT) organisations and users for 2013 and beyond. The predictions focus on economic risks, opportunities and innovations that will impel Chief Information Officers (CIOs) to move to the next generation of business-driven solutions.
"The priorities for CEOs must be dealt with by CIOs who exist in a still-turbulent economy and increasingly uncertain technology future," said Daryl Plummer, managing vice president and Gartner fellow. "As consumerisation takes hold, CIOs must provide reliability, serviceability and availability of systems and services. Their priorities must span across multiple areas. The IT industry must coordinate activities in a much wider scope than it once controlled, and as a result, a loss of control echoes through several predictions we are making."
Gartner's top predictions for IT organizations include the following:
By 2014-end, three of the top five mobile handset vendors will be Chinese
The openness of Android creates new markets for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) that previously did not have the necessary software expertise and engineering capabilities. The market continues to consolidate around Android and iOS, with others struggling to gain traction. And with most vendors committed to Android, it has become difficult to differentiate. The result is that the traditional mobile phone players are getting squeezed, being unable to compete with Apple and Samsung at the high end and struggling to differentiate from aggressive new vendors (Huawei and ZTE).
Through 2015, 90% enterprises will bypass broad-scale deployment of Windows 8
Windows 8 is Microsoft's attempt to bring the touch interface to its flagship product to counter gains by Apple in rapid-growth markets. Microsoft had to make this change to modernise its offering, and its approach is to push IT organisations to this new interface as quickly as possible. However, most enterprises and their trusted management vendors are not yet prepared for this change, and Gartner predicts that enterprises will want to wait for more stability before proceeding.
By 2015, big data demand will reach 4.4 million jobs globally, but only one-third will be filled
An important aspect of the challenge in filling jobs lies in the fact that enterprises need people with new skills – data management, analytics and business expertise and nontraditional skills necessary for extracting the value of big data, and artists / designers for data visualisation.
By 2014, EU directives will drive legislation to protect jobs, reducing offshoring by 20 percent through 2016
With little expectation of a short-term recovery, Gartner expects to see the EU introducing directives before the end of 2014 to protect local jobs. The impact of this would be a net reduction of offshoring by 20% through 2016. This does not mean that organisations would abandon the use of global delivery models, but it would result in the rebalancing of where labor is located with such models.
By 2014, IT hiring in Western markets will come predominantly from Asian companies enjoying double-digit growth
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An increasing number of successful Asian companies (from China and India) are enjoying double-digit growth and will substantially grow their geographic footprints, making significant investments in major Western markets through 2015.
By 2017, 40 percent enterprise contact information will have leaked into Facebook via employees' increased use of mobile device
Facebook is one of the top five applications installed on smartphones and tablets. While many organisations have been legitimately concerned about the physical coexistence of consumer and enterprise applications on devices that interact with IT infrastructure, there has been little discussion about the underlying technologies that permit transfer of information. These interactions are difficult to track, and the technologies to control the transfer are more difficult to build.
Through 2014, employee-owned devices will be compromised by malware at more than double the rate of corporate-owned devices
Gartner believes that enterprises will block or restrict access for those devices that are not compliant with corporate policies. Enterprises that adopt bring your own device (BYOD) initiatives should establish clear policies that outline which employee-owned devices will be allowed and which will be banned. In the BYOD era, security professionals will need to diligently monitor vulnerability announcements and security incidents involving mobile devices and respond appropriately with policy updates.
Through 2014, software spending resulting from the proliferation of smart operational technology will increase by 25%
Machine-to-machine communication has a potential to trigger significant new software costs for four reasons: (1) amount of software like light databases or operating systems embedded in many operational devices; (2) traditional software vendors starting to charge license fees, in certain circumstances, if the devices even indirectly hit their applications; (3) operational technology vendors are developing IT-like platforms and getting away from hardware sales and into annuity software sales; (4) people buying and paying for this may not even be in IT, are not experts in software procurement, and may make expensive mistakes signing license agreements with hidden, or not so hidden, costs and risks.
By 2015, 40 percent of Global 1000 organizations will use gamification as the primary mechanism to transform business operations
Seventy% of business transformation efforts fail due to lack of engagement. Gamification addresses engagement, transparency of work, and connecting employees' actions to business outcomes. Diverse industry segments are already finding gamification effective, and Gartner predicts that the worldwide market will grow from $242 million in 2012 to $2.8 billion in 2016, with enterprise gamification eclipsing consumer gamification in 2013.
By 2016, wearable smart electronics in shoes, tattoos and accessories will emerge as a $10 billion industry
The majority of revenue from wearable smart electronics over the next four years will come from athletic shoes and fitness tracking, communications devices for the ear, and automatic insulin delivery for diabetics. CIOs must evaluate how the data from wearable electronics can be used to improve worker productivity, asset tracking and workflow. Wearable electronics will also provide more-detailed information to retailers for targeting advertisements and promotions.
By 2014, market consolidation will displace up to 20% of the top 100 IT services providers
A nexus of forces (cloud, big data, mobility and social media) along with continued global economic uncertainty, will accelerate the restructuring of the nearly $1 trillion IT services market. By 2015, low-cost cloud services will cannibalise up to 15% of top outsourcing players' revenue, and more than 20% of large IT outsourcers not investing enough in industrialisation and value-added services will disappear through merger and acquisition. CIOs should reevaluate the providers and types of providers used for IT services, with particular interest in cloud-enabled providers supporting information, mobile and social strategies.