How long can we stay wired?

Are wired networks here to stay?

Two technology pioneers have opposing views.

You may have heard of Moore's Law which states that the number of transistors on a chip doubles annually.

Then there is Robert Metcalfe's law which states the value of a network equals approximately the square of the number of sytem's users. Simply put, the value of a fax machine increases when more people use fax machines.

These laws aren't new but assume more significance when the person citing them as technology trends has a law that bears his own name. We're speaking about Phil Edholm and his Edholm's law.

Besides, he's not only the chief technology officer (CTO) and VP (strategy & architecture enterprise solutions and packet networks), Nortel, but also the holder of seven patents with 18 applications pending.

Edholm talks about three categories of communications "� wired (in offices), wireless and nomadic (in some places). He says data rates for these three telecommunications categories increase on similar exponential curves "� slower rates trailing the faster ones by a predictable time lag.

His law predicts that in 2010, third-generation (3G) wireless will deliver 1 Mbps, Wi-Fi will bring nomadic access to 10 Mbps, and office desktops will connect at 1 Gbps.Edholm also notes that we may someday see the end of wired communication.

Applications such as high-definition TV (HDTV), high-quality videoconferencing, and three-dimensional displays will require more bandwidth and, hence, wired communication.

However, the human eyeball can process only a limited number of pixels per second. "How fast can somebody type? How fast can somebody watch a video? So at some point when wireless hits those bandwidth limits, we can abandon our wirelines," he explains.

The Nortel CTO notes that IT is in its third phase. The first phase was the 60s and 70s which saw the automation of existing systems such as payrolls, etc. The 80s (second phase) changed the way companies were doing business with IT influencing a change in business processes.

Finally, he says: "When IT becomes a utility such as electricity, it ceases to be a strategic edge. It is then that companies will have to engage the customer to change business processes."