Whose number is it anyway?

Imagine being able to carry the same mobile number when you switch from Airtel to Reliance. Or having your MTNL fixed line number as your Hutch mobile number. Welcome to the world of number portability "� the ability to change service providers and still keep the same phone number.

Number portability will be upon us, one day. The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), the telecom industry's regulator, has kicked off the process of introducing it.

Number portability offers consumers several benefits. It will promote competition and give customers the freedom to choose the wireless telephone service they want.

A survey conducted by US based consultants TMNG pointed out that keeping their telephone number was very important to more than 70 per cent of all wireless respondents. And 29 percent of the total wireless customer base indicated that they would change the operator solely based on being able to take their phone number with them.

In the US, for instance, where number portability was introduced in November 2003, more than an estimated 40 per cent of wireless consumers are ready to switch operators.

So it's easy to understand why telecom service providers fiercely oppose number portability. In India, they've joined ranks in a bid to delay it by another two to three years, if not scuttle it altogether.

Says Manoj Kohli, president, Bharti Cellular: "While we are fine with the concept of number portability, we feel that the market should mature. Already seven wireless players in the market are providing intense competition. Customers already have the best of services, have the lowest tariffs and face no substantial barriers in choosing the wireless service that best serves their needs."

Umang Das, managing director of Spice Corp, agrees: "Some more important issues need to be addressed first. For instance, if operators have to handle the churn and offer better service, we need more spectrum. There are issues related to access deficit charge and roll out of the unified licence regime which need to be taken up on a priority basis. Number portability can follow later."

Telecom service companies also claim that there are technical hassles in implementing number portability in India.

"In the US, telephone numbers were uniform at the time of introducing number portability. In India we follow a different number scheme for cellular, limited mobile and fixed line services. So how can an eight digit fixed line number be given to a subscriber migrating to a cellular network which is designed for 10 digit numbers," asks an executive at a basic services company.

Cellular service companies say that introducing number portability now would be disastrous since the mobile numbers are exploding by more than 100 per cent a year.

"Number portability is suited for a market where the growth has stabilised. Introducing it in India at this stage would create a mess in the market with operators not being able to handle the churn, in addition to addressing new subscribers," argues one cellular service company executive.

The cellular service industry points out that the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the US regulator, has received more than 3,000 complaints from consumers since wireless phone number porting began in the US.

Some of these arguments can't be overlooked. But the real reason cellular and basic service companies want to buy time is the cost associated with introducing number portability.

Says S C Khanna, general secretary, Association of Basic Telecom Operators: "Number portability is too expensive. Who is going to fund it?"

InStat/MDR, a research group, believes that operators in US will have to cough up anywhere between $900 and $1billion initially on implementing number portability. The annual costs for wireless carriers will be close to $500 million, on an ongoing basis.

Telecom companies will also have to keep investing in upgrading their networks because, with number portability, customers will have the freedom to move to a network which offers better service.

With most telecom companies still to emerge from the red, investing such large amounts seems a distant possibility.

What is more, number portability is expected to bring down tariffs even further as subscribers will have the power to negotiate the best deal with service providers.

Large companies with hundreds or thousands of employees, especially, will be in the driver's seat when negotiating wireless contracts and volume discounts.

According to telecom analysts, number portability will result in a 15 per cent to 20 per cent drop in wireless service prices and a 10 per cent drop in wireless vendors' operating cash flow.

That apart, operators will also have to invest in network and software upgrades, new staff, new operation procedures, training, negotiating agreements and testing with other operators to accommodate number portability.

Analysts estimate that per-carrier spending on such upgradation will range from $50 million to $200 million.

TRAI, meanwhile, is appointing a consultant to advise it on the issue.

TRAI member D P S Seth says: "We have to decide whether we want to introduce number portability on a local basis or on country wide basis, whether it should only be between cellular operators or even between fixed line service companies and cellular service companies. We also have to work out the costs for operators. All this will take time and cannot be done in a hurry."

The US took 15 years and three attempts to get its act together on number portability. Will Indian consumers have to wait that long?