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Arvind Subramanian

Arvind Subramanian

Arvind Subramanian is a former chief economic advisor to the Government of India. He was the assistant director in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. He previously taught at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies.

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Arvind Subramanian

Why did RBI replace flexible exchange rate with de facto peg against dollar

The RBI must come out with an official explanation, but until it does, we can only guess. But there are a few reasonable hypotheses

Updated On: 15 Jan 2025 | 10:17 PM IST

Rupee defence strategy: Why RBI should embrace currency flexibility

India now holds about $650 billion in reserves, enough to finance nearly a year of imports. The problem is that global financial markets have even more firepower

Updated On: 24 Dec 2024 | 9:52 PM IST

The new RBI should revert to old rupee policy to address challenges

In our earlier piece in these pages, we highlighted the unwelcome consequences of the exchange rate policy adopted under the outgoing Reserve Bank of India (RBI) regime

Updated On: 17 Dec 2024 | 12:33 AM IST

Why Trump's return to the White House is an opportunity for India

A more principled response would be to initiate talks with the US on a bilateral deal or free-trade agreement. India stands to gain from trade liberalisation

Updated On: 30 Nov 2024 | 12:30 AM IST

Explained: Has India's exchange rate regime changed for the worse?

Ever since the liberalisation in 1991, the RBI has pursued a flexible exchange rate policy

Updated On: 28 Oct 2024 | 11:02 PM IST

Institutions rule: COCD's path to the Nobel in economics this year

Why Colonial Origins of Comparative Development is Nobel-worthy

Updated On: 15 Oct 2024 | 10:50 PM IST

India's manufacturing under-performance Part 1: New clue from multi-plants

One of the most intriguing and relatively undocumented developments of the last 20 yrs has been "multi-plants," whereby a single firm operates not one but multiple production facilities within a state

Updated On: 09 Oct 2024 | 12:26 AM IST

India's manufacturing under-performance Part 2: New clue from multi-plants

In multi-plant units, flexibility in hiring & firing labour comes from fact of having many plants. In single plants, there is no such flexibility, which renders use of contract labour more important

Updated On: 09 Oct 2024 | 12:25 AM IST

Why restrictive trade responses fail to halt China's export juggernaut

US and Europe should understand the issues and discuss them with China, tailoring responses to the underlying diagnosis, rather than taking knee-jerk protectionist measures that only stoke tensions

Updated On: 23 Aug 2024 | 11:22 PM IST

Union Budget 2024-25: Three macro puzzles and policy implications

Why is consumption soft, employment growth weak, and core inflation low, when the economy is apparently growing strongly?

Updated On: 19 Jul 2024 | 9:44 PM IST

GST revenues: The fate of the compensation cess amid Centre-state row

There's no reason for the cess to be retained in its current form. That's because the cess rates themselves are monstrously complicated, varying not only in magnitude but also according to end-use

Updated On: 03 Jul 2024 | 11:31 PM IST

GST's revenue performance: Centre's sacrifice for cooperative federalism

Over the past few years, most commentators have rightly emphasised the tensions in Centre-state fiscal relations, pointing especially to the Centre's repeated recourse to non-sharable cesses

Updated On: 03 Jul 2024 | 12:47 AM IST

The Sino-American trade war benefits China's competitors

India offers a prime example. It has successfully attracted several Western firms exiting China since launching its 'China Plus One' strategy in 2014

Updated On: 24 May 2024 | 11:03 PM IST

What does the NSS data imply for GDP estimates?

What can we learn from the latest survey? Before we answer this question, we need to recognise the limitations of comparing NSS figures with the ones from the NIA

Updated On: 15 Apr 2024 | 10:33 PM IST

Manmohan vs Modi: False debate on both sides

The Modi government needs to thank previous governments for midwifing the GST and highlighting its value, which helped overcome Modi's own reservations about the reform

Updated On: 09 Feb 2024 | 5:30 PM IST

India's climate goals: Navigating a complex dilemma

Its experience underscores that unanimous advocacy for carbon taxation can be misguided, as it ignores country-specific realities

Updated On: 13 Jan 2024 | 12:00 AM IST

Understanding GST revenue performance

Contrary to belief, GST underperformed the old tax regime in its initial years but has now begun to exceed expectations, six years after implementation

Updated On: 01 Jan 2024 | 10:42 PM IST

Is the economy surging or decelerating: Understanding India's growth rate

The nominal figures track the real numbers until the first half of FY23, but then decline by a whopping 14 percentage points over the past three quarters

Updated On: 14 Sep 2023 | 10:54 PM IST

India should quit the Brics

Arvind Subramanian is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Josh Felman is a principal at JH Consulting

Updated On: 08 Sep 2023 | 8:47 AM IST

Understanding Biden's Big Bet on India

America has drawn India into a one-sided quasi-alliance: it seems to have taken one, at most one-and-a-half, to tango. The strategic rationale, of course, is the need to counter-balance China

Updated On: 03 Jul 2023 | 10:37 PM IST