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Soumya Kanti Ghosh is the Group Chief Economic Advisor of State Bank of India & Member 16th Finance Commission. Previously, he has worked at the Tata AIA, American Express and ICRA among others.
In all, the policy has travelled considerable space in addressing the emerging issues in financial services
Apprehensions have been expressed in public domain of a slowdown in money supply on the back of an inadequate reserve money expansion and this could play a role in growth slowdown
Employers and employees must contribute a percentage of their basic salary plus DA towards the UPS fund - which differentiates it from OPS but makes it similar to NPS
Households still invested Rs 10 trillion in bank deposits and another Rs 2.5 trillion in small savings deposits out of this Rs 29.7 trillion pie, or 42%
While the share of retail loans has increased, they are anchored in secure home loans
Changes to IP laws have yielded results, leading to an improvement in India's ranking in the innovation index
Growth prospects are robust domestically. Key drivers on the demand side, household consumption will improve further, while prospects of fixed investment remain bright
Inflation should remain largely range bound in the coming months (5-6 per cent)
In the payments domain, the scope of the existing digital payment architecture has been widened
The RBI has not used the word stickiness in its policy statement while characterising core inflation, but instead used "unyielding core inflation"
Finally, the RBI is right in not providing a forward guidance in the current uncertain environment but providing a detailed explanation of keeping the stance unchanged
Bank nationalisation was annulled by the Supreme Court (10-1) echoing many voices of dissent on economic grounds
The implicit inflation in FY22 works out at 10 per cent, with the nominal GDP growth at 19.5 per cent
RuPay aims to empower every Indian with a world class payment solution
The RBI has also proposed to allow interoperability in cardless cash withdrawal transactions at all banks and ATMs using the UPI facility
Of this, the unconventional liquidity measures amount to approx. Rs 9.1 trillion, implying the residual Rs 8.1 trillion is mostly conventional liquidity injection
One challenge that the RBI might have to face in FY22 is the movement in exchange rate
The point of dissonance is, however, regarding the surplus liquidity sloshing around the banking system and the fear that it might endanger financial stability
Given the scale of demand contraction, we need a fiscal package of at least 3-4 per cent of GDP