 "AI, agro-processing, gig economy with most job potential: Economic Survey")
The Economic Survey 2023-24 released on Monday, highlighted several sectors with significant job creation potential for India’s future workforce, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), agro-processing, and the growing gig economy. The impact of climate change also has the potential of adding jobs in the renewable energy sector.
AI revolution in India
The accelerated growth in AI is set to revolutionise the global economy, and India is no exception. AI has already made significant strides in sectors such as agri-tech, industry and automotive, healthcare, BFSI, and retail in India. For instance, Praman Exchange, the world’s largest horticulture exchange, uses computer vision to map the quality of horticulture products, achieving a 95 per cent accuracy rate compared to the 70 per cent accuracy of manual assessments.
According to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) ‘Future of Jobs report, 2023’, the global job market is expected to change significantly over the next five years, with 23 per cent of jobs projected to undergo transformation. This will include a 10.2 per cent growth in some jobs and a 12.3 per cent decline in others.
Despite India’s position as a global leader in AI, the Economic Survey observed a notable gap in domestic research and development.
In 2019, China published 102,161 AI-related research papers, followed by the US with 74,386, and India with only 23,398. This disparity highlights the need for increased research efforts in India.
The Indian government has launched several initiatives to foster an AI-enabled ecosystem, including ‘Future Skills Prime’, ‘YUVAi: Youth for Unnati and Vikas with AI’, and ‘Responsible AI for Youth 2022’.
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During the Interim Budget session earlier this year, Rs 10,300 crore was allocated to the India AI Mission, a significant move to strengthen the AI ecosystem.
Rise of gig economy in India
Gig economy, encompassing freelancers, online platform workers, self-employed individuals, on-call workers, and creative tech talent, has created a market shift in the employment scenario.
In India, the rise of the gig economy is driven by the emergence of tech-enabled platforms, increased access to the internet, the development of digital public infrastructure, the demand for flexible work arrangements, and a focus on skills.
According to NITI Aayog’s estimates, in 2020–21, 7.7 million workers were engaged in the gig economy, constituting 2.6 per cent of the non-agricultural workforce or 1.5 per cent of the total workforce in India.
The gig workforce is expected to expand to 23.5 million by 2029–30, forming 6.7 per cent of the non-agricultural workforce or 4.1 per cent of the total workforce in India. While it may open up employment opportunities for various sections of workers, including youth, persons with disabilities, and women, a significant issue in both the Indian and global contexts has been the creation of effective social security initiatives for gig and platform workers. The Code on Social Security (2020) marks a significant advancement by expanding the scope of social security benefits to encompass gig and platform workers.
Agro-processing in rural employment
The agro-processing sector has been proposed as a “fertile sector for job creation in a pragmatic and decentralised manner”, in the Economic Survey 2023-24. Agro-processing lies at the intersection of multiple opportunities for rural growth.
Besides being an intermediate sector for the ‘farm to factory’ transition, agro-processing can also accelerate crop diversification in areas such as Punjab and Haryana, where paddy cultivation faces serious challenges related to groundwater scarcity.
Increased access to education and skill development, as well as other initiatives for women’s empowerment, has elevated the participation of women in the nation’s development and progress. The female Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) rose to 37 per cent in 2022-23 from 23.3 per cent in 2017-18. However, rural India has driven this trend, with nearly three-fourths of women workers engaged in agriculture-related work. Thus, the rise in LFPR needs to be tapped into higher value-addition sectors suitable to the needs and qualifications of the rural female workforce, and agro-processing emerges as a good contender for the same.
Sahyadri Farmer Producer Company (SFPC), an agro-processing unit based in Nashik, Maharashtra crossed a remarkable turnover of Rs 1,000 crore in FY23. The growth of Sahyadri Farms has also led to the creation of 1,300 full-time jobs and an additional 4,000 seasonal jobs, demonstrating the significant employment potential of the agro-processing sector.
Climate change and green job potential
The survey highlighted India’s position as “one the most vulnerable countries to productivity losses” due to climate change. This is due to India’s high share of agricultural and construction employment, along with its location within the tropical latitude.
Efforts made to mitigate climate change impact through adopting green technologies and transitioning to greener energy alternatives are leading to a strong job-creation effect. Investments facilitating the green transition of businesses and the application of environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards are driving this trend.
For instance, India’s green transition is expected to significantly impact job opportunities in the renewable energy sector. The survey observed that by 2030, clean energy initiatives could potentially create about 3.4 million jobs (short and long-term) by installing 238 GW of solar and 101 GW of new wind capacity to achieve the 500 GW non-fossil electricity generation capacity.
These jobs would be created in the wind and on-grid solar energy sectors, with about one million individuals expected to be employed in these green jobs.