According to a report, ‘Platts shale to polyethylene report - Global outlook to 2023’, India, while not as large a consumer of the plastic polyethylene (PE) as China, is expected to post the largest percentage growth in demand of any of the Asia-Pacific nations over the next 10 years. The report shows India’s PE demand will likely increase 129% from 2013 through 2023, far surpassing Asia’s projected growth rate of 81% and China’s 87% for the period.
On a metric tonne (mt) basis, that means overall PE demand in India is projected to climb to 8.2 million by 2023, up from 3.6 million in 2013.
Polyethylene, also called polythene, is the world’s most widely used plastic, primarily used to make films used in packaging and plastic bags. Polyethylene consumes more than half of the worlds’ supply of ethylene, derived from various petrochemical olefins.
Demand for high density polyethylene (HDPE), used in the manufacturing of such things as plastic sheeting for ducting and appliance hoods, is expected to climb to more than 4 million mt by 2023, while demand for linear- low density polyethylene (LLDPE), used in the making of such things as industrial containers, is projected to approach 3 million mt over the period. Demand for low density polyethylene (LDPE), used in the making of such things as kitchen cutting boards, is expected to reach 1.2 million mt.
“If projections are correct, India will be the second largest importer of polyethylene by 2023, behind China. India’s expected polyethylene deficit will be 3.4 million metric tonnes by 2023, behind China’s likely 12 million metric tonne shortfall and ahead of deficits forecasted for Africa and Europe. And while China’s demand is still clearly outpacing India, India is proving to be an influential customer in the growing polyethylene markets – during a decade outlook period where global oversupply is becoming more of a concern,” said Jim Foster, Editorial Director of Petrochemical Analysis at Platts.
In the Report’s tracking of three ethylene cracker projects in India, all are expected to use naphtha as a feedstock. The first, Reliance Jamnagar Refinery expansion, is on track to come online with 9,50,000 metric tonnes of ethylene in the fourth quarter of 2015. The one-million-metric tonne ONGC Naheij OPAL unit in Dahej and the 2,20,000-metric-ton BPCL Kochi Petrochemical Complex, are both in progress of securing license partners and could be facing startups in 2015 and 2018, respectively.
Foster added, “We hear a lot of talk about how shale gas is a ‘game changer’ in the petrochemical industry. And it certainly is. But coal-to-olefins (CTO) has the potential to have an even greater impact than shale gas, if China moves forward as planned.”
Report data showed that not only is China adding ethylene production capacity, it is adding more than 14 million metric tonnes of additional polyethylene capacity between 2014 and 2021, much of which is being fed by the CTO produced ethylene.
The report, in its look at new ethylene and polyethylene production developments worldwide, made clear that new Asian capacity – most of which is in China – will hit the global markets ahead of the new production planned for North America. The largest capacity gains in the Americas are projected to occur in 2017 and 2020, when new shale-based production comes on-stream.
“Each of those two years will see increases of little more than two-million metric tonnes, but in 2015 and 2016 alone, Asian PE capacity could climb more than seven million metric tonnes,” said Foster.
Platts report showed the influx of Asian material will likely increase global polyethylene surpluses by more than 50% between 2013 and 2015. Global surpluses of the plastic are projected to climb to more than seven million metric tonnes between 2016 and 2018.
On a metric tonne (mt) basis, that means overall PE demand in India is projected to climb to 8.2 million by 2023, up from 3.6 million in 2013.
Polyethylene, also called polythene, is the world’s most widely used plastic, primarily used to make films used in packaging and plastic bags. Polyethylene consumes more than half of the worlds’ supply of ethylene, derived from various petrochemical olefins.
Demand for high density polyethylene (HDPE), used in the manufacturing of such things as plastic sheeting for ducting and appliance hoods, is expected to climb to more than 4 million mt by 2023, while demand for linear- low density polyethylene (LLDPE), used in the making of such things as industrial containers, is projected to approach 3 million mt over the period. Demand for low density polyethylene (LDPE), used in the making of such things as kitchen cutting boards, is expected to reach 1.2 million mt.
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“If projections are correct, India will be the second largest importer of polyethylene by 2023, behind China. India’s expected polyethylene deficit will be 3.4 million metric tonnes by 2023, behind China’s likely 12 million metric tonne shortfall and ahead of deficits forecasted for Africa and Europe. And while China’s demand is still clearly outpacing India, India is proving to be an influential customer in the growing polyethylene markets – during a decade outlook period where global oversupply is becoming more of a concern,” said Jim Foster, Editorial Director of Petrochemical Analysis at Platts.
In the Report’s tracking of three ethylene cracker projects in India, all are expected to use naphtha as a feedstock. The first, Reliance Jamnagar Refinery expansion, is on track to come online with 9,50,000 metric tonnes of ethylene in the fourth quarter of 2015. The one-million-metric tonne ONGC Naheij OPAL unit in Dahej and the 2,20,000-metric-ton BPCL Kochi Petrochemical Complex, are both in progress of securing license partners and could be facing startups in 2015 and 2018, respectively.
Foster added, “We hear a lot of talk about how shale gas is a ‘game changer’ in the petrochemical industry. And it certainly is. But coal-to-olefins (CTO) has the potential to have an even greater impact than shale gas, if China moves forward as planned.”
Report data showed that not only is China adding ethylene production capacity, it is adding more than 14 million metric tonnes of additional polyethylene capacity between 2014 and 2021, much of which is being fed by the CTO produced ethylene.
The report, in its look at new ethylene and polyethylene production developments worldwide, made clear that new Asian capacity – most of which is in China – will hit the global markets ahead of the new production planned for North America. The largest capacity gains in the Americas are projected to occur in 2017 and 2020, when new shale-based production comes on-stream.
“Each of those two years will see increases of little more than two-million metric tonnes, but in 2015 and 2016 alone, Asian PE capacity could climb more than seven million metric tonnes,” said Foster.
Platts report showed the influx of Asian material will likely increase global polyethylene surpluses by more than 50% between 2013 and 2015. Global surpluses of the plastic are projected to climb to more than seven million metric tonnes between 2016 and 2018.