Australia to Sri Lanka: WTC 2025 final scenarios for five teams

New Zealand’s historic Test win over India, England going down against a resurgent Pakistan, and Sri Lanka dominating the Kiwis in their home Test—these results in the last couple of months have intensified the World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 cycle’s race to the final.

 

These results have ensured that all the teams in the top five of the WTC points table still have the chance to book their tickets for the final at Lord’s. While last year's finalists, India and Australia, still hold the top two positions, they are still not guaranteed a place in the final of the ongoing WTC cycle. What do the qualification scenarios of the top five teams look like? Let’s take a look.

 

India (62.82 percentage points)

 

To secure a top-two finish in this WTC cycle, India must win the final Test of their series against New Zealand in Mumbai and then clinch a 3-2 series victory over Australia. This would place India at 64.04 per cent points.

 

If Australia wins 2-0 in their upcoming series against Sri Lanka, they could only reach 60.53 per cent even with two victories over India. New Zealand’s chances would also be limited to 57.14 per cent if they lost in Mumbai despite winning 3-0 against England in their final series of the ongoing WTC cycle. Only South Africa could then surpass India in such a scenario. Should the Australia series end in a 2-2 draw, India’s percentage would be 60.53 per cent compared to Australia’s 62.28 per cent, based on India’s win in Mumbai and Australia’s 2-0 result over Sri Lanka. 

 

If India loses to New Zealand in Mumbai, New Zealand could reach 64.29 per cent with a 3-0 sweep over England. In this case, India would need four wins and one draw against Australia to secure a spot in the final.

 

Remaining matches:

• 1 Test vs New Zealand (Home)
• 5 Tests vs Australia (Overseas)

 

Australia (62.50 percentage points)

 

India’s losses to New Zealand have boosted Australia’s chances of qualifying for the WTC final. A 3-2 series win over India plus a 1-0 victory in Sri Lanka would place them at 62.28 per cent, ensuring they finish ahead of India. New Zealand could surpass this percentage, but only with a clean sweep in their remaining games. If New Zealand falters, South Africa would be the only team capable of surpassing Australia. Australia can secure its place in the final by winning five of its remaining seven matches, avoiding dependence on other outcomes.

 

Remaining matches:

• 5 Tests vs India (Home)
• 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (Overseas)

Sri Lanka (55.56 percentage points)

 

Sri Lanka, after winning their last Test series against New Zealand 2-0 at home, have given themselves a chance to compete at the WTC final at Lord’s. Their four remaining matches include Tests against South Africa and Australia, both of whom are also in the running. Winning all four games would secure them 69.23 per cent, assuring qualification. If they win three and lose one, they would end at 61.54 per cent, still with a chance to qualify depending on other results.

 

Remaining matches:

• 2 Tests vs South Africa (Overseas)
• 2 Tests vs Australia (Home)

New Zealand (50.00 percentage points)

 

New Zealand’s chances looked slim at the start of the India series, but their wins in two of the three Tests have reignited their hopes. If they win all four remaining Tests, they will reach 64.29 per cent, giving them a strong chance of qualifying. A single loss would reduce their final percentage to 57.14 per cent, making qualification challenging.

 

Remaining matches:

• 1 Test vs India (Overseas)
• 3 Tests vs England (Home)

South Africa (47.62 percentage points)

 

South Africa needs five straight wins in their remaining Tests to secure 69.44 per cent, which should guarantee qualification, as only one team between India or Australia could exceed that score. Four wins and one draw would place them at 63.89 per cent, while a record of five wins with one defeat would leave them at 61.11 per cent, possibly allowing qualification if other results favour them. After their ongoing series with Bangladesh, South Africa’s will face Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home which might tilt the conditions in their favour.

 

Remaining matches:

• 1 Test vs Bangladesh (Overseas)
• 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (Home)
• 2 Tests vs Pakistan (Home)

The bottom half of the table 

Teams at the bottom half of the WTC 2023-25 points table, such as England, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and West Indies, are unlikely to qualify for the final at Lord’s.

 

WTC 2023-25 Points Table

 

WTC 2023-25 Points Table (After IND vs NZ second Test)
Rank	Team	M	W	L	T	D	N/R	PT	PCT
1	India	13	8	4	0	1	0	98	62.82
2	Australia	12	8	3	0	1	0	90	62.5
3	Sri Lanka	9	5	4	0	0	0	60	55.56
4	New Zealand	10	5	5	0	0	0	60	50
5	South Africa	7	3	3	0	1	0	40	47.62
6	England	19	9	9	0	1	0	93	40.79
7	Pakistan	10	4	6	0	0	0	40	33.33
8	Bangladesh	9	3	6	0	0	0	33	30.56
9	West Indies	9	1	6	0	2	0	20	18.52