A new great game is afoot: India-China rivalry to lead Global South

Leadership of the developing world could well become a defining characteristic of the 21st century

Three days after India wrapped up the G20 Summit with a surprise joint declaration and inclusion of the African Union as a permanent member in the club of the most powerful economies, China issued a comprehensive document elaborating its vision for the global governance reforms, advocating a place for Africa on the high table at the United Nations Security Council.
 

India has used its year-long G20 presidency to position itself as the true voice of the “Global South”, a euphemism that represents less the geographical Southern Hemisphere and more the developing world that faces the common challenges of poverty, inequality, and under-development.

China, on the other hand, has been dipping into its deep pockets to dole out loans to poor countries with the stated aim of helping them ramp up their infrastructure through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Some countries that are part of that initiative, such as Sri Lanka and Zambia, have fallen into debt traps. However, an unrelenting China has doubled down on its ambition to form a coalition against the West by reaffirming its leadership of the Global South.
 

Jayant Dasgupta, India’s former ambassador to the World Trade Organization, says India after a long time has started asserting that it belongs to the Global South, and a proud member at that. “Most of our concerns are closely aligned with those of the other countries of the South. There is growing disillusionment with China and its BRI, to a certain extent, among the poorer countries. India is trying to grab that space being vacated by China because of its harsh conditions of debt repayment,” he adds.
 

At the G77 Summit of developing countries earlier this month in Cuba, Li Xi, the special representative of Chinese President Xi Jinping, said China was the world’s largest developing nation and a natural member of the Global South.
 

“No matter what stage of development it reaches, China will always be part of the developing world and a member of the Global South,” Li said.
 

As if speaking in anticipation, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told a television channel last month that those who are really Global South know it in their heart. “Anybody can say we are Global South. Question is do you behave like the Global South? Global South to me is partly income, partly mindset, partly heart, partly performance on the ground,” Jaishankar quipped, without naming China.
 

Sanjay Bhattacharyya, India’s former Brics Sherpa, says China’s ambition to be part of the Group of Two (the other being the United States) with an assertive role in geopolitics is not in sync with its aspiration to lead the Global South. 
 

“The Global South needs a more accommodative and cooperative leadership. China certainly does not fit that kind of a role,” he adds.
 

Accommodation and cooperation
 

Earlier this year, in January, India hosted a Voice of the Global South Summit with virtual participation from 125 nations. The aim was to highlight the concerns of developing countries in the G20 framework. China was not invited.

Modi highlighted four Rs at the Summit. “To re-energise the world, we should together call for a global agenda of ‘Respond, Recognise, Respect and Reform’,” he said. The four Rs he highlighted were:
 

- Respond to the priorities of the Global South by framing an inclusive and balanced international agenda

- Recognise that the principle of “Common but Differentiated Respons­ibi­lities” applies to all global challenges

- Respect sovereignty of all nations, the rule of law and peaceful resolution of differences and disputes; and

- Reform international institutions, including the United Nations, to make them more relevant

At the same summit, Jaishankar was his usual forthright self. Holding that the recent developments had added to the stress and anxiety of the Global South, he said: “As it is, many were facing unsust­ainable debt, unviable projects, trade barriers, contracting financial flows and climate pressure. It starkly exposed the dangers of over-centralised globalisation and unreliable supply chains. It was a reminder, too, that a more democratic and equitable world can only be built on greater diversification and localisation of capabilities.”

At the end of the summit, India announced a host of initiatives, including a project, Aarogya Maitri, to provide essential medical supplies to developing countries in crisis and the Global South Centre of Excellence.

Bhattacharyya says the fact that India has grown tremendously over the decades, in terms of its economic size, has now not only given it the ability but also the willingness to be a voice of the Global South.
 

“Countries have to believe that the opt­ions they get into, whether it is dev­elopment or strategic, are part of their own national priorities and agenda, and not something that is dictated by the agenda of some other country like China. India’s is a much more collaborative approach, trying to put the aspira­tions of the developing countries on the global stage,” he says.

Name of the game

The question is, can India match China penny by penny?

Dasgupta says India certainly cannot match the Chinese financial heft, even though the latter’s economy is in the doldrums and slowing down at a faster clip than anticipated. “India should look at trilateral cooperation models with developed countries as an alternative to the Chinese model of direct financing,” he says.

Bhattacharyya, how­ever, believes money and financing are no longer the name of the game.

“China must do what it does the worst: get countries into debt, make them strategically deficient. Money is not the only driving force. That realisation has come to many. All across Africa, the white man’s burden has now become the yellow man’s burden. So that model has actually failed,” he says.

India believes the reforms in the multilateral development banks (MDBs), a campaign the country is spearheading as part of its G20 presidency, could unleash additional lending by MDBs to the tune of $200 billion over the next decade and assist those developing countries that are facing fiscal distress.

India launched the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure in 2019, along with the United Kingdom and Australia, to support the development of resilient infrastructure in the least developed countries. India and France have agreed to work towards setting up the Indo-Pacific Trilateral Development Cooperation for funding projects, especially in the framework of the International Solar Alliance. The ISA now has firmed up projects in Bhutan, Papua New Guinea, and Senegal.

Though the endgame for the leadership of the Global South is far from settled, it could well become a defining characteristic of the India-China equation in this century.