Artificial rainmaking still under research, says IMD chief Mohapatra

India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General MRUTYUNJAY MOHAPATRA said the Mission Mausam programme, approved by the Union Cabinet last month with a budget outlay of Rs 2,000 crore for over two years, will not just improve weather forecasting in the country but also study the potential to enhance or suppress rain. In an interview with Ramani Ranjan Mohapatra in New Delhi, the IMD chief talked about the improved forecasting system, global warming impact, and the artificial intelligence (AI) applications. Edited excerpts:

 

Can you elaborate on the Mission Mausam programme? Many experts have called for caution in developing artificial cloud chambers.   

The objective of Mission Mausam is to improve the IMD’s forecast services. Through this initiative, we aim to improve our observation, communication, modelling, forecasting, and warning dissemination systems.

 

Artificial rainmaking is still under research. It has not been told that we will go for operations. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has been conducting research on this for many years. Under this mission, there is a component aimed at further enhancing research on clouds and artificial rainmaking, etc. To this end, there may be a need to establish cloud chambers. The IITM study will not only help us understand clouds better but also explore how this research can be integrated into our modelling systems to improve forecasts. It will also study the potential to enhance or suppress rain.

 

How did IMD fare in forecasting the monsoon this year?   

The southwest monsoon in 2024 was quite good. Rainfall for the country was 87 cm, or 107.6 per cent of the long-period average, which was above normal. This matched our prediction that the rainfall would be above normal, with a variation of plus or minus 4 per cent.

 

In terms of spatial distribution, we had predicted that many parts of the country would experience normal to above-normal rainfall, except for parts of the northeastern states, some areas in eastern India, and Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, and adjoining regions of Himachal Pradesh. Almost 80 per cent of these spatial predictions were also accurate.

 

This accuracy can be attributed to the multi-model ensemble prediction scheme introduced in 2021, which provides forecasts spatially, monthly, and seasonally.

 

The adverse impact of El Niño was not seen during this monsoon session. The monsoon began with El Niño conditions but shifted to neutral conditions in the middle of the season. In June, rainfall was deficient but returned to normal or above normal in the next three months.

 

What are the reasons for extreme weather conditions and their longer durations, particularly in Delhi and northern states? Do you think global warming plays a role?   

There is a trend of delayed monsoon withdrawal from northwest India, which occurred this year as well. Earlier, monsoon withdrawal from Rajasthan used to be on September 1, but now it begins around September 15 or 17. At the same time, the withdrawal date remains the same over peninsular India, and it has decreased by about a week in central India.

 

Regarding temperature, 2024 was an El Niño year, and more intense, longer than normal heatwave conditions were observed, as predicted.

 

Global warming plays a role worldwide. Due to global warming, there are noticeable changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures.

 

Have cyclones become more frequent recently?   

The overall number of cyclones has decreased, both in India and globally. However, there is an increasing trend in the number of intense cyclones (extremely severe cyclonic storms with wind speed of more than 150 kmph) in certain basins, such as the Arabian Sea, since the 1990s. This trend can be attributed, with low confidence, to climate change, based on various studies.

 

How is AI helping IMD?   

At present, AI applications in IMD are limited. We sometimes use AI to estimate cyclone intensity, assess the impact of heatwaves, and make decisions on thunderstorms.

 

We are also developing AI capabilities in collaboration with various institutes. Many research and development initiatives are being undertaken by IMD and the Ministry of Earth Sciences in association with other organisations. There are small developments so far, but I am sure that AI and machine learning applications will be enhanced in the next couple of years.