A climate crucible: The stage is set for a heated COP28 summit in Dubai

As the year of stocktaking of the Paris Agreement records historic high temperatures

This year is on track to become the hottest on record with the average global temperature inching 1.43 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. Amid the rising heat, representatives of well over 100 nations will meet in Dubai from November 30 to December 12 to take stock of how the world has fared in keeping a lid on global warming.

With the temperatures in almost all the months of 2023 witnessing historic highs, the answer seems obvious.

Conference of the Parties or COP will convene for its 28th meeting and the first global stocktaking of the Paris Agreement, which was adopted at the COP21 in 2015.

Under the agreement, world leaders agreed to recalibrate their climate action plans to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius. The agreement marked out 2023 as a global stocktaking year. The draft synthesis report prepared by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on the global stocktaking has already received starkly diverse views from different countries. Some have alleged that the UN has glossed over the missed targets of the developed world while some have pointed to lack of equity in climate action.

The tone for a contentious COP28 is well and truly set.

Money versus intent

A recent report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said developed nations had finally met the goal of providing $100 billion annually for climate action in developing countries. Released last week, the report said the goal was likely to have been met in 2022, based on an analysis of preliminary and yet unverified data. The target, set in 2009, was initially expected to be met by 2020.

Since then, the developing and least developed nations have clamoured over lack of support from the Global North and most of the finance being dispensed as loan rather than grant. Last year at COP27 in Egypt, the developing world succeeded in getting a separate Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) to bankroll climate adaptation efforts of the particularly vulnerable countries that are facing the impact of global warming caused by historical polluters in developed economies. But the draft “deal” prepared by the committee overseeing the LDF has already created a divide.

The draft deal does not make it obligatory on the developed world to contribute to the fund. It also does not clearly specify the definition of beneficiaries. The 24-member Transitional Committee also suggested that the LDF should be temporarily hosted by the World Bank for four years.
 

During COP28, this draft deal would form the case for the deliberations. Experts are expecting countries such as India, Pakistan and those from the African Union to rally around and oppose equal contribution to LDF. As the founding member of Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrast­ructure, India is also expected to support the demands of vulnerable and island nations for a greater share of the LDF, according to climate negotiation observers. While the EU has committed to funding a large share of the LDF, the US is not in favour of the polluter pays principle.

What India wants

Since India announced its net-zero target year of 2070 at the Glasgow COP26, expectations are riding high on the country to champion green growth. While India has committed to ambitious targets of green energy deployment across sectors, it has not given any expiry date of fossil fuel production and usage. India has repeatedly cited its developing status and growing needs as compelling reasons to continue its reliance on fossil fuels, especially coal, for meeting power demand. India has also joined voices with other nations from the Global South to demand more action and money from the Global North.

Officials in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas have stressed that India should stick to its position in Dubai that further investment in developing and extracting oil and gas resources is needed in tandem with the exploration of carbon-free alternatives, Business Standard reported earlier this month.

The Union minister for power, new and renewable energy, R K Singh, said on Wednesday that close to 80 gigawatt (Gw) of thermal power would be required to meet the rising electricity demand. “We have 27 Gw under construction, and we had thought that we would add another 25 Gw. But we have decided that we will start work on at least 55-60 Gw of thermal capacity. As demand keeps accelerating, we will keep adding this capacity,” Singh said.

At inter-ministerial consultations, officials have batted for the same stance. The argument is in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call to ensure major investments into India’s oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) sector, even as India remains committed to boosting renewable energy and phasing out carbon emissions.

“We can’t have a situation where investments in hydrocarbons are capped globally. Our developmental needs and energy security can’t be compromised,” a senior official said.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India’s share in global oil demand is 5.5 per cent in 2023, much below the United States’ 20 per cent and China’s 16.1 per cent. However, it is rising at a fast clip and is set to hit 6.6 per cent over the next five years. Meanwhile, India’s primary energy demand will nearly more than double to 38.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2045, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has said. Interestingly, India has so far strongly advocated phasing down the use of all fossil fuels, including oil and gas. At COP27, India made a pitch to expand the scope of a proposal on phasedown of coal for all fossil fuels. It reiterated the request at this year’s G20 summit in New Delhi for the group’s carbon emission phasedown plan. However, the host nation conceded to the requests of major hydrocarbon-producing nations, especially Saudi Arabia, to limit the phasedown to coal.

The controversial COP28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, who is also the chief executive officer of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, has called upon the private sector, especially oil and gas companies, to contribute to climate action. Climate activists are up in arms as emitters take centre stage in COP28 discussions while the former have been given a separate arena in Expo City Dubai.

This would be a COP of conflicts and ironies — the most glaring of which is that the Earth’s temperature briefly breached the critical threshold of 2 degrees Celsius just a week before the event. Clearly, this is no time for a cop-out on climate action.